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| 1 |
ID:
150907
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| Summary/Abstract |
Monthly and hourly correlations among photovoltaic (PV) capacity utilization, electricity prices, electricity consumption, and the thermal efficiency of power plants in Massachusetts reduce electricity prices and carbon emissions beyond average calculations. PV utilization rates are highest when the thermal efficiencies of natural gas fired power plants are lowest, which reduces emissions of CO2 and CH4 by 0.3% relative to the annual average emission rate. There is a positive correlation between PV utilization rates and electricity prices, which raises the implied price of PV electricity by up to 10% relative to the annual average price, such that the average MWh reduces electricity prices by $0.26–$1.86 per MWh. These price reductions save Massachusetts rate-payers $184 million between 2010 and 2012. The current and net present values of these savings are greater than the cost of solar renewable energy credits which is the policy instrument that is used to accelerate the installation of PV capacity. Together, these results suggest that rooftop PV is an economically viable source of power in Massachusetts even though it has not reached socket parity.
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| 2 |
ID:
162935
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| Summary/Abstract |
To investigate the efficacy and efficiency of environmental taxes, I analyze the rate at which taxes on motor gasoline are passed to consumers by estimating two cointegrating vector autoregression models for each of six states. For state models that specify the retail price of motor gasoline without taxes, exclusion tests suggest that taxes on motor gasoline are not passed to consumers on a one-for-one basis. For state models that specify the retail price of motor gasoline including taxes, results indicate that taxes are passed to wholesale prices in Florida and Massachusetts on a one-for-one basis and are passed to retail prices with a ‘mark-up’ in Florida, Massachusetts, New York, and Ohio, and are not fully passed through in Washington. State-specific rates of pass-through differ from results suggested by theory and fixed effects estimators, which may be biased by the presence of nonstationary data and the assumption that the rate of pass through is the same across states. Rates of pass through greater than one transfer $12.2 billion from consumers to retailers in FL, $2.3 billion in MA, and $19.2 billion in NY during the sample period, which represent 10.7%, 6.0%, and 23.9% of total expenditures on regular motor gasoline.
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| 3 |
ID:
125851
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
We revisit statistical estimates for the relation between weather and energy consumption in Massachusetts using times series for heating degree hours that are calculated from hourly data with different set points and set backs. Using hourly values to calculate heating degree hours supports models that generate more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than models estimated from time series for heating degree-days calculated the traditional way. Furthermore, the set point and set back used to calculate heating degree hours generates statistically measurable differences in the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts. These results indicate that assuming a set point of 65 °F biases statistical estimates for the effect of a warming climate on energy use. We also quantify a new mechanism by which climate change will affect energy use-the temperature of tap water. As climate warms, the temperature of tap water that supplies hot water tanks rises, which reduces the amount of energy consumed to provide hot water. Finally, we use the statistical models to generate a spatial (1 km×1 km) and temporal (hourly) downscaling of carbon emissions that will be used to simulate a model for atmospheric transport and validate our understanding of the sources and sinks of carbon for the urban atmosphere.
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| 4 |
ID:
101381
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
I hypothesize that the price spike and collapse of 2007-2008 are driven by both changes in both market fundamentals and speculative pressures. Contrary to arguments for a demand shock, I hypothesize that prices rise sharply in 2007-2008 because ongoing growth in Chinese oil demand runs into a sudden and unexpected halt to a decade long increase in non-OPEC production. This caused a loss of OPEC spare capacity because increased demand for OPEC production runs ahead of increases in OPEC capacity. These changes are reinforced by speculative expectations. Although difficult to measure directly, I argue for the role of speculation based on the following: (1) a significant increase in private US crude oil inventories since 2004; (2) repeated and extended break-downs (starting in 2004) in the cointegrating relationship between spot and far month future prices that are inconsistent with the law of one price and arbitrage opportunities; and (3) statistical and predictive failures by an econometric model of oil prices that is based on market fundamentals. These changes are related to the behavior and impact of noise traders on asset prices to sketch mechanisms by which speculative expectations can affect crude oil prices.
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