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| 1 |
ID:
150067
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| Summary/Abstract |
Understanding and properly managing risks that could potentially affect the target- and performance-based profits of energy performance contracting (EPC) projects are essential. It is particularly important for the establishment and success of energy service companies (ESCOs) acting in the vulnerable environment of the vast but highly energy-inefficient Russian market. This study systematically explores common risk factors and causes of risk associated with EPC projects executed in three Russian sectors: (1) industrial; (2) housing and communal services; and (3) public. Several interviews with the Russian EPC experts were accomplished and a qualitative risk assessment by using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach. The data were obtained from a web-based questionnaire survey conducted among Russian EPC project executors. For each focus sector, a specific preference-based ranking of the identified risk factors and causes of risk was derived. The AHP results show that causes of risk related to the financial and regulatory aspects contribute most to the riskiness of EPC projects performed in all three focus sectors in Russia, calling for the special attention of EPC policy- and business-makers. Due to sectorial particularities and different actors involved, we conclude that there is a need for elaboration of sector-specific contractual schemes for EPC projects.
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| 2 |
ID:
109617
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The battery size of a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) is decisive for the electrical range of the vehicle and crucial for the cost-effectiveness of this particular vehicle concept. Based on the energy consumption of a conventional reference car and a PHEV, we introduce a comprehensive total cost of ownership model for the average car user in Germany for both vehicle types. The model takes into account the purchase price, fixed annual costs and variable operating costs. The amortization time of a PHEV also depends on the recharging strategy (once a day, once a night, after each trip), the battery size, and the battery costs. We find that PHEVs with a 4 kWh battery and at current lithium-ion battery prices reach the break-even point after about 6 years (5 years when using the lower night-time electricity tariffs). With higher battery capacities the amortization time becomes significantly longer. Even for the small battery size and assuming the EU-15 electricity mix, a PHEV is found to emit only around 60% of the CO2 emissions of a comparable conventional car. Thus, with the PHEV concept a cost-effective introduction of electric mobility and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions per vehicle can be reached.
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| 3 |
ID:
101513
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2010.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The EU Directive 2004/8/EC, concerning the promotion of cogeneration, established principles on how EU member states can support combined heat and power generation (CHP). Up to now, the implementation of these principles into national law has not been uniform, and has led to the adoption of different promotion schemes for CHP across the EU member states. In this paper, we first give an overview of the promotion schemes for CHP in various European countries. In a next step, we take two standard CHP technologies, combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT-CHP) and engine-CHP, and apply exemplarily four selected support mechanisms used in the four largest European energy markets: feed-in tariffs in Germany; energy efficiency certificates in Italy; benefits through tax reduction in the UK; and purchase obligations for power from CHP generation in France. For contracting companies, it could be of interest to diversify their investment in new CHP facilities regionally over several countries in order to reduce country and regulatory risk. By applying the Mean-Variance Portfolio (MVP) theory, we derive characteristic return-risk profiles of the selected CHP technologies in different countries. The results show that the returns on CHP investments differ significantly depending on the country, the support scheme, and the selected technology studied. While a regional diversification of investments in CCGT-CHP does not contribute to reducing portfolio risks, a diversification of investments in engine-CHP can decrease the risk exposure.
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| 4 |
ID:
193753
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| Summary/Abstract |
Previous studies on the economics of onshore wind parks in Germany found that geographic diversification results in minor system costs savings (Pfluger et al., 2017a). Furthermore, such diversification does not necessarily result in higher market values (Eising et al., 2020) or better merchant profitability (Klie and Madlener, 2022). Therefore, the question arises whether an alternative allocation (i.e. concentration rather than diversification) of the German wind park fleet is more economical. In this paper, we compare the future (2030) market values, subsidy needs and total system costs (excl. intra-national grid costs due to congestion, redispatch and curtailment) of a more concentrated versus a more diversified allocation of onshore wind turbines in Germany. The results show that a concentration of turbines, in areas where the gap between market values and levelized costs of electricity is smallest (i.e. Northern Germany), is more beneficial in terms of subsidy need and system costs (ignoring congestion, redispatch and curtailment). The analysis further shows that these areas are also more beneficial in terms of market values, when using system-friendly turbine configurations selected based on the same approach. To incentivize such a selection of areas and turbine configurations based on minimal gaps between market values and levelized costs an alternative renewables support scheme is presented, which favors such minimal gaps in its auctioning process.
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| 5 |
ID:
183108
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| Summary/Abstract |
Massive increases in Internet data traffic over the last years have led to rapidly rising electricity demand and CO2 emissions, giving rise to environmental externalities and network congestion costs. One particular concern is the rise in data traffic generated by video-streaming services. We analyze the electricity-saving potential related to video streaming in Europe from 2020 to 2030. To this end, three trend scenarios (Business-as-usual, Gray, and Green) are considered and modeled bottom-up, taking specific electricity consumption (and trends) of data transmission networks, end-use devices, and data centers into account. Using these scenarios, we examine in more detail the approximate electricity-saving impact that regulatory interventions and technical standards can have on the electricity consumption of end-users, network operators, and data centers. The model results reveal that regulatory intervention can have a significant impact on electricity consumption and CO2 emissions of the residential houshold sector.
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| 6 |
ID:
125401
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this paper, we design and evaluate eight different strategies for hedging commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants. Price developments are parameterized based on EEX data from 2008 to 2011. The probability distributions derived are used to determine the value-at-risk (VaR) of the individual strategies, which are in a final step combined in a mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the most efficient hedging strategy. We find that the strategy adopted can have a marked influence on the remaining price risk. Quarter futures are found to be particularly well suited for reducing market price risk. In contrast, spot trading of CO2 certificates is found to be preferable compared to forward market trading. Finally, portfolio optimization shows that a mix of various hedging strategies can further improve the profitability of a heat-based cogeneration plant.
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| 7 |
ID:
133142
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this paper, we identify key drivers and barriers for the adoption of building energy retrofits in Germany, which is promoted by public policy as an important measure to address the future challenges of climate change and energy security. We analyze data from a 2009 survey of more than 400 owner-occupiers of single-family detached, semidetached, and row houses in Germany, that was conducted as a computer-assisted personal interview (CAPI). In the survey, respondents were asked directly for reasons for and against retrofitting their homes, but also faced a choice experiment involving different energy retrofit measures. Overall, we find that house owners who are able to afford it financially, for whom it is profitable, and for whom there is a favorable opportunity are more likely to undertake energy retrofit activities. The latter point seems to be of particular importance in explaining the persistent low retrofit rate in Germany. Our results suggest that professional energy advice could stimulate the demand for building energy retrofits.
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| 8 |
ID:
121358
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Heating demand accounts for a large fraction of the overall energy demand of private households in Germany. A better understanding of the adoption and diffusion of energy-efficient and renewables-based residential heating systems (RHS) is of high policy relevance, particularly against the background of climate change, security of energy supply and increasing energy prices. In this paper, we explore the multi-dimensionality of the homeowners' motivation to decide between competing RHS. A questionnaire survey (N=2440) conducted in 2010 among homeowners who had recently installed a RHS provides the empirical foundation. Principal component analysis shows that 25 items capturing different adoption motivations can be grouped around six dimensions: (1) cost aspects, (2) general attitude towards the RHS, (3) government grant, (4) reactions to external threats (i.e., environmental or energy supply security considerations), (5) comfort considerations, and (6) influence of peers. Moreover, a cluster analysis with the identified motivational factors as segmentation variables reveals three adopter types: (1) the convenience-oriented, (2) the consequences-aware, and (3) the multilaterally-motivated RHS adopter. Finally, we show that the influence of the motivational factors on the adoption decision also differs by certain characteristics of the homeowner and features of the home.
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| 9 |
ID:
104967
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Due to the liberalization of energy markets in the European Union, today's European utilities not only focus on electricity supply, but also offer exchange-traded "structured products" or portfolio management for unbundling financial and physical risk positions. Many utilities are only able to provide these services in their domestic markets. In a globalized economy, the need for a centrally organized pan-European portfolio management has arisen, as it allows a simplified commodity sourcing in combination with an optimized risk management. In this paper, we examine the challenges to be overcome for establishing a European-wide bundling of electricity contracts. For this purpose, a case study based on the business perspective of RWE Supply & Trading in Central and Eastern Europe is carried out. In a first step, we analyze general requirements for a pan-European bundling of electricity contracts. Then, RWE's situation in Europe is examined, based on which we finally propose a concept to meet customer demands in Central and Eastern Europe.
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| 10 |
ID:
176676
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper presents an evaluation of four energy transition scenarios under consideration of multiple stakeholder opinions. We construct a multi-criteria group decision model that applies Value-Focused Thinking to construct a holistic objective system and uses Multi-Attribute Utility Theory to evaluate the energy transition scenarios. Although the individual scenario evaluations show that the opinions of the stakeholders towards a sustainable energy transition differ largely, we are able to identify three main strands of opinions among the considered stakeholders. By bundling the stakeholder interests by employing a k-means clustering technique, we derive detailed policy recommendations for a sustainable energy transition. For the case of Germany, these are to reduce GHG and pollutant emissions and at the same time enable citizens’ participation, limit the visual impact on landscapes, and ensuring internationally comparable energy-related political frameworks for the economy. For the case of a sustainable energy transition in Germany, we find that the stakeholders considered prefer either the highly ambitious Climate Protection scenario (Scenario B) or the Pan-European scenario (Scenario C). The main novelties of the study are that stakeholders are included in every step of the decision-making process and that very comprehensive energy transition scenarios, comprising the electricity, transport, heat, and industry sectors, are considered.
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| 11 |
ID:
117256
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) has the potential to play a major role in the stabilization of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. To develop the capture technology from its current demonstration phase towards commercial maturity, significant funding is directed to CCS, such as the EU's €4.5 bn NER300 fund. However, we know little about how this funding relates to market diffusion of CCS. This paper addresses that question. We initially review past learning effects from both capacity installations and R&D efforts for a similar technology using the concept of two-factor learning. We apply the obtained learning-by-doing and learning-by-searching rates to CCS in the electricity market model Hector, which simulates 19 European countries hourly until 2040, to understand the impact of learning and associated policies on CCS market diffusion. We evaluate the effectiveness of policies addressing learning-by-doing and learning-by-searching by relating the policy budget to the realized CCS capacity and find that, at lower policy cost, both methods are about equally effective. At higher spending levels, policies promoting learning-by-doing are more effective. Overall, policy effectiveness increases in low CO2 price scenarios, but the CO2 price still remains the key prerequisite for the economic competitiveness, even with major policy support.
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| 12 |
ID:
181426
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper offers new insights on utility-driven heat energy consumption derived from using an interdisciplinary modeling framework that is based on Becker's household production theory. The research question addressed is whether economic aspects affect short-term, less conscious behavior in the same way as long-term, more conscious behavior. From the investigation, new insights on the usefulness of price-based energy policy measures targeting heat energy consumption are gained. The household production model proposed for analyzing residential heat energy demand integrates economic, engineering and behavioral elements. Comparative statics enables an interdisciplinary integration of price- and income functions to cover economic influences on heat energy (service) consumption, the production function to cover technical influences, and the utility-based choice architecture to cover utility maximization influences. Based on a functional representation of the theories, a panel data model of heat energy consumption is estimated. The empirical analysis is based on data from 60 adjacent apartments in South-West Germany. We find empirical evidence that the price elasticity of demand is only statistically significant when using yearly aggregated data. This result provides evidence that occupants apparently do not act much based upon energy price levels when following their daily home heating routine. In less frequent considerations, as e.g. according to their yearly billing cycles, occupants adjust their heat energy consumption in response to the fuel price changes noticed on the energy bill. Furthermore, in relation to the other influences on heat energy consumption, we find that the price impact is less pronounced than the impact of comfort conditions. Therefore, a CO2 price on heat energy might set the right incentives to invest in more energy-efficient heating technology, but hardly alter comfort-taking or rebound effects.
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| 13 |
ID:
109640
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper reports on the Austrian research project "Renewable energy in Austria: Modeling possible development trends until 2020". The project investigated possible economic and ecological effects of a substantially increased use of renewable energy sources in Austria. Together with stakeholders and experts, three different scenarios were defined, specifying possible development trends for renewable energy in Austria. The scenarios were simulated for the period 2006-2020, using the integrated environment-energy-economy model "e3.at". The modeling results indicate that increasing the share of renewable energy sources in total energy use is an important but insufficient step towards achieving a sustainable energy system in Austria. A substantial increase in energy efficiency and a reduction of residential energy consumption also form important cornerstones of a sustainable energy policy.
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| 14 |
ID:
150769
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| Summary/Abstract |
The replacement of outdated and inefficient fossil fuel residential heating systems (RHS) by more efficient and less CO2-intensive appliances primarily based on renewable energy sources is an important pillar for the transition to a cleaner and more sustainable energy system. This paper empirically investigates drivers and barriers behind homeowners' decisions to switch from a fossil fuel to a renewable RHS in Germany. For this purpose, we draw on data from a 2010 questionnaire survey among owners of existing single-family and duplex houses in Germany that had received a financial grant to install an RHS (i.e. condensing boiler with solar thermal support, heat pump or wood pellet boiler). We show that environmental protection, a lower dependency on fossil fuels, and a higher degree of RHS-related knowledge are key drivers. In contrast, the perceived difficulty of getting used to the system and a misunderstanding of its principal functioning are obstacles for the heat pump. For the wood pellet boiler, perceived barriers include the low usability, the labor-intensive operation, and the systems' fault liability. Hence, a higher replacement rate requires the willingness to relinquish old habits and perceptions of how an RHS works and operates.
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