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OSIRAQ
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1
ID:
101681
Targeting nuclear orograms in war and peace: a quantitative empirical analysis, 1941-2000
/ Fuhrmann, Matthew
Fuhrmann, Matthew
Journal Article
0 Rating(s) & 0 Review(s)
Publication
2010.
Summary/Abstract
When do states attack or consider attacking nuclear infrastructure in nonnuclear weapons states? Despite the importance of this question, relatively little scholarly research has considered when and why countries target nuclear programs. The authors argue that states are likely to attack or consider attacking nuclear facilities when they are highly threatened by a particular country's acquisition of nuclear weapons. Three factors increase the salience of the proliferation threat: (1) prior violent militarized conflict; (2) the presence of a highly autocratic proliferator; and (3) divergent foreign policy interests. The authors test these propositions using statistical analysis and a new data set on all instances when countries have struck or seriously considered striking other states' nuclear infrastructure between 1941 and 2000. The findings lend support for the theory and very little support for the alternative explanations. States are not deterred from attacking nuclear programs by the prospect of a military retaliation and concerns about international condemnation do not appear to influence the willingness to strike. Ultimately, states are willing to accept substantial costs in attacking if they believe that a particular country's acquisition of nuclear weapons poses a significant threat to their security.
Key Words
Peace
;
Nuclear Proliferation
;
Nuclear Program
;
Six Day War
;
Preventive Strikes
;
Osiraq
;
* © The Author(s) 2010
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2
ID:
193162
Why Israel launched a preventive military strike on Iraq’s nuclear weapons program (1981): The fungibility of power resources
/ Lobell, Steven E
Lobell, Steven E
Journal Article
0 Rating(s) & 0 Review(s)
Summary/Abstract
In 1981, Israel launched a preventive military strike against a nuclear reactor that Iraq was constructing at the Tuwaitha Nuclear Research Center. The low fungibility of Iraq’s power resources, and especially its nuclear weapons program, shaped Israel’s decision-making process. First, it motivated Israel’s executives to disaggregate Iraq’s capabilities. Though they identified Baghdad’s emerging nuclear weapons program as a threat, there was little pressure to act more broadly. Second, it pushed Israel’s leaders to favour delaying strategies to stall Iraq’s program. Third, it motivated Israel’s leaders to favour a preventive military strike to delay Iraq’s nuclear program from becoming more fungible.
Key Words
Power resources
;
Preventive War
;
Osiraq
;
Fungibility
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