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SPATIAL STATISTICS (2) answer(s).
 
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ID:   101683


Predicting conflict in space and time / Weidmann, Nils B; Ward, Michael D   Journal Article
Ward, Michael D Journal Article
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Publication 2010.
Summary/Abstract The prediction of conflict constitutes a challenge to social scientists. This article explores whether the incorporation of geography can help us make our forecasts of political violence more accurate. The authors describe a spatially and temporally autoregressive discrete regression model, following the framework of Geyer and Thompson. This model is applied to geo-located data on attributes and conflict events in Bosnia over the period from March 1992 to October 1995. Results show that there is a strong spatial as well as temporal dimension to the outbreak of violence in Bosnia. The authors then explore the use of this model for predicting future conflict. Using a simulation approach, the predictive accuracy of the spatial-temporal model is compared to a standard regression model that only includes time lags. The results show that even in a difficult out-of-sample prediction task, the incorporation of space improves our forecasts of future conflict.
Key Words Bosnia  ;  Space  ;  Time  ;  Conflict Prediction  ;  Spatial Statistics  ;  Civil War 
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2
ID:   122658


Use of GIS in exploring settlement patterns of the ethnic group / Cheewinsiriwat, Pannee   Journal Article
Cheewinsiriwat, Pannee Journal Article
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Publication 2013.
Summary/Abstract This article implemented geographic information system and spatial statistics to explore the settlement patterns of ethnic groups in Nan, Thailand, in relation to geographic factors. The general findings reveal that people of the same ethnic group tend to live in clustered fashion. In addition, ethnic groups located on an elevation of 200-500 m above the mean sea level tend to live near both roads and rivers (within 1 km), while those on higher elevations tend to live further away from roads and rivers. Furthermore, the unique characteristics of the settlement patterns of each ethnic group were also identified.
Key Words Ethnic Group  ;  GIS  ;  Spatial Statistics  ;  Settlement Pattern 
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