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ID:
102767
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines the contribution of exports to growth in China since the early years of the decade. It is estimated that, despite a high import content ranging between 40 and 50 percent, approximately one-third of Chinese growth before the global crisis was a result of exports, due to their phenomenal growth of some 25 percent per annum. This figure increases to 50 percent if spillovers to consumption and investment are allowed for. The main reason for excessive dependence on foreign markets is underconsumption. This is due not so much to a high share of household savings in GDP as to a low share of household income and a high share of profits. It is argued that China can no longer maintain such high growth rates for its exports, and, therefore, needs to turn to consumption-led growth by expanding the share of wages and household income in GDP and accelerating public spending in social infrastructure.
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| 2 |
ID:
102778
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
We use the Chinese initial public offering data from October 2009 to August 2010 to examine the newly-established growth enterprise board (GEB). The results indicate that the GEB has been successful and is providing a viable channel for new small and medium-sized firms to raise external capital. Four variables, the volatility variable, the turnover ratio, the winning lottery ratio and the price-earnings ratio, are important factors driving the initial-day returns in the regression analysis. The implementation of the new trading-halts policy on the GEB is found to be effective in mitigating excessive speculation. Our analysis results could be used by policy-makers to gauge the effects of policy changes on the underpricing of the initial public offerings of the GEB.
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| 3 |
ID:
102771
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper compares the three recent episodes of boom and bust cycles in asset prices: Japan in the late 1980s to the 1990s; the USA since the mid-1990s; and China during the past decade. Although we have not yet seen a collapse of Chinese property prices, their increases so far are comparable to those in the other two episodes and a careful comparative study is warranted. The present paper first examines the behavior of asset prices, of property prices in particular, in the three cases, and highlights some similarities. The paper emphasizes the role played by extremely easy monetary policy in generating bubble-like asset price behavior in the three cases. The reason for easy monetary policies is investigated. In the US case, the monetary authority was concerned about the risk of deflation in the early to mid-2000s. The experiences of Japan and China are quite similar in that the monetary authorities of both countries were seriously concerned about the possible deflationary effects of exchange rate appreciation on the economy. The implications of such a finding for the future of Chinese macroeconomic policy are discussed.
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| 4 |
ID:
102774
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper brings together a number of robust trade models to shed some light on the likely evolution of the global automotive industry. Vertical product differentiation, intra-industry trade and fragmentation of production leading to international outsourcing are important features of the existing global automotive sector. The global automotive sector will most likely experience groundbreaking changes over the coming decades. The sector is confronted with a multidimensional technological revolution spurred by radical product innovation, shifts in customer demand and government incentives. A dominant driver will be growing public concern about climate change. China and India might well become leading players by 2050, if not earlier.
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| 5 |
ID:
102776
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Using the structural vector autoregression model, we estimate the current responses of monetary policy to contemporaneous shocks from macroeconomic variables. Our findings indicate that the People's Bank of China responded to inflation and output changes, but did not react to asset price fluctuations during the period from January 1997 to March 2010. The optimal monetary responses to exogenous shocks are also examined. It is revealed that using asset prices to formulate monetary policy would not help to improve monetary authorities' performance in lowering the volatilities of output growth and inflation while keeping output growth and inflation in their safety zones. The effectiveness of monetary policy and fiscal policy in reacting to external shocks is also discussed.
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| 6 |
ID:
102769
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
We investigate changes in Asia's regional and global trade linkages and their influence on macroeconomic relationships among Asia, Europe and the USA. We first document changes in tripartite trade patterns and discuss stylized facts about East Asia's trade structure, with particular focus on the role of China. China plays a critical role in the rapidly expanding intra-Asian trade as an assembly and production center that supplies final goods for the advanced economies. However, China's trade shares in final goods with East Asia and in parts and components with Europe and the USA are rising, suggesting that the region's production chains are becoming increasingly integrated into the global business network. Empirical results from a panel vector autoregression model generally confirm increasingly mutual macroeconomic interdependence among East Asia, Europe and the USA. The findings suggest a future role for Asia as an important trade partner and balancing power in the world economy.
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