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| 1 |
ID:
115696
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
We analyze the economic competitiveness of grid-connected, distributed solar photovoltaic generation through small-scale rooftop installations in five Brazilian state-capitals. The locations represent a comprehensive set of the two essential parameters for the economic viability of PV-solar irradiation and local electricity tariffs. Levelized electricity costs (LEC) for PV generation and net present values (NPV) for a specific PV system are presented. The analysis comprises three different interest rate scenarios reflecting different conditions for capital acquisition to finance the generators; subsidized, mature market and country-specific risk-adjusted interest. In the NPV analysis, revenue flow is modeled by the sale of PV electricity at current residential tariffs assuming net metering. Using subsidized interest rates, the analysis shows that solar PV electricity is already competitive in Brazil, while in the country-specific risk-adjusted rate, the declining, but still high capital costs of PV make it economically unfeasible. At a mature market interest rate, PV competitiveness is largely dependent on the residential tariff. Economic competitiveness in this scenario is given for locations with high residential tariffs. We demonstrate the high potential of distributed generation with photovoltaic installations in Brazil, and show that under certain conditions, grid-connected PV can be economically competitive in a developing country.
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| 2 |
ID:
125713
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Planning of national energy policies brings new dilemmas with the introduction of distributed generators (DG). Economic theory suggests that a perfectly competitive market would lead to efficient pricing. In the absence of competition, regulators play a fundamental role in attracting reasonably priced finance in order to maintain, refurbish and increase the infrastructure and provide services at a reasonable cost. Energy market price equilibrium is mainly dependent on suppliers, generators, energy sources and demand, represented by conventional utility grid users. Its behavior is similar to that of other commodities. As generation becomes less centralized with the increasing economic viability of renewable energy sources, new suppliers are being connected to the grid. Such evolution means the transition from a monopolistic market to a broader and more open environment, with an increasing number of competitors. We make use of variational inequalities to model a hypothetical DG market in different scenarios, from monopoly, to oligopoly, to open market. Such an approach enables different equilibrium outcomes due to different DG penetration levels. Based on these findings, we argue that energy policies for such markets must be developed according to each specific stage of the grid's lifecycle. We show how energy policies and market regulations may affect such a transition, which may be catastrophic if not managed properly, and which is dependent on the energy mix.
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| 3 |
ID:
103349
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In the developed world, grid-connected photovoltaics (PVs) are the fastest-growing segment of the energy market. From 1999 to 2009, this industry had a 42% compound annual growth-rate. From 2009 to 2013, it is expected to grow to 45%, and in 2013 the achievement of grid parity - when the cost of solar electricity becomes competitive with conventional retail (including taxes and charges) grid-supplied electricity - is expected in many places worldwide. Grid-connected PV is usually perceived as an energy technology for developed countries, whereas isolated, stand-alone PV is considered as more suited for applications in developing nations, where so many individuals still lack access to electricity. This rationale is based on the still high costs of PV when compared with conventional electricity. We make the case for grid-connected PV generation in Brazil, showing that with the declining costs of PV and the rising prices of conventional electricity, urban populations in Brazil will also enjoy grid parity in the present decade. We argue that governments in developing nations should act promptly and establish the mandates and necessary conditions for their energy industry to accumulate experience in grid-connected PV, and make the most of this benign technology in the near future.
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