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| 1 |
ID:
104905
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this article, we discuss the "cycle hypothesis" in electricity generation, which states that the introduction of deregulation in an electricity system might lead to sustained fluctuations of over- and under-capacity. The occurrence of cycles is one of the major threats for electricity markets as it affects the security of supply, and creates uncertainty in both the profitability of electricity companies and in consumer prices. We discuss the background for these cycles using analogies with other capital-intensive industries, along with evidence from the analysis of behavioral simulation models as well as from experimental electricity markets. Using data from the oldest deregulated markets we find support for the hypothesis in the case of the English and Chilean markets, based on an autocorrelation analysis. Evidence from the Nordpool market is more ambiguous, although we might be observing the first half of a cycle in generation capacity. Comparing a simulation of the English market performed in 1992 with the actual performance we can observe that the qualitative behavior of the model is consistent with the actual evolution. Finally, we discuss possible mechanisms for damping cycles in electricity generation, such as mothballing, capacity payments, and reliability markets.
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| 2 |
ID:
103365
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Gas markets are becoming increasingly important around the world and the long-term evolution of these markets is of strategic importance for many countries. This makes it essential to understand how regulation and intervention in these markets affects the long-term prospect for the secure supply of gas. We use Argentina as a case to illustrate some of the issues and consequences of gas regulation. Argentina is a country that has had a significant increase in the use of gas over the years, and where a potential gas deficit looms large in the present and the future. Based on a simulation model developed to understand the supply of gas in Argentina, we discuss how regulation will influence the long-term supply of gas in both Argentina and surrounding countries. Using the model, we develop a series of scenarios to highlight the consequences of different current and possible future interventions in the market by the Regulator. Finally, we discuss short-term regulatory options to reduce the impact of a gas deficit, and the possibility of securing the long-term supply of gas in Argentina.
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