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| 1 |
ID:
111387
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Offshore wind power is anticipated to make a major contribution to the UK's renewable energy targets but, contrary to expectations, costs have risen dramatically in recent years. This paper considers the context of these cost increases, and describes a disaggregated levelised cost model used by the authors to explore the effect of different assumptions about the direction and scale of the major cost drivers. The paper identifies the competing upward and downward pressures on costs in the medium term, and discusses the range of future costs that emerges from the analysis. The paper goes on to analyse the implications of these cost projections for the policy support levels that offshore wind may require. The paper suggests that there are good reasons why it is reasonable to expect a gradual fall in costs in the period to the mid-2020s, although it is unlikely that costs will fall as rapidly as they have risen, or that it will be a smooth downward trajectory. A key challenge is to reconcile the scale and pace of development desired for UK offshore wind with the potential growth rate that the supply chain can sustain without creating upward pressure on costs.
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| 2 |
ID:
103408
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Wind power is widely expected to expand rapidly in Britain over the next decade. Large amounts of variable wind power on the system will increase market risks, with prices more volatile and load factors for conventional thermal plant lower and more uncertain. This extra market risk may discourage investment in generation capacity. Financial viability for thermal plant will be increasingly dependent on price spikes during periods of low wind. Increased price risk will also make investment in other forms of low-carbon generation (e.g. nuclear power) more challenging.
A number of policies can reduce the extent to which generators are exposed to market risks and encourage investment. However, market risks play a fundamental role in shaping efficient investment and dispatch patterns in a liberalised market. Therefore, measures to improve price signals and market functioning (such as a stronger carbon price and developing more responsive demand) are desirable. However, the scale of the investment challenge and increased risk mean targeted measures to reduce (although not eliminate) risk exposure, such as capacity mechanisms and fixed price schemes, may have increasing merit. The challenge for policy is to strike the right balance between market and planned approaches.
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