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ID:
128411
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The decline of China's energy intensity slowed since 2000. During 2002-2005 it actually increased, reversing the long-term trend. Therefore, it is important to identify drivers of the fluctuation of energy intensity. We use input-output structural decomposition analysis to investigate the contributions of changes in energy mix, sectoral energy efficiency, production structure, final demand structure, and final demand category composition to China's energy intensity fluctuation during 1997-2007. We include household energy consumption in the study by closing the input-output model with respect to households. Results show that sectoral energy efficiency improvements contribute the most to the energy intensity decline during 1997-2007. The increase in China's energy intensity during 2002-2007 is instead explained by changes in final demand composition and production structure. Changes in final demand composition are mainly due to increasing share of exports, while changes in production structure mainly arise from the shift of Chinese economy to more energy-intensive industries. Changes in energy mix and final demand structure contribute little to China's energy intensity fluctuation. From the consumption perspective, growing exports of energy-intensive products and increasing infrastructure demands explain the majority of energy intensity increase during 2002-2007.
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| 2 |
ID:
103457
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This research builds a technology-based bottom-up model to estimate the performance of China's coal-fired electricity industry on resource consumption and environmental emissions. From the integrated estimation of three scenarios characterizing different stages of technology innovation in 2007-2030, technology innovation is proven to be the determinant in decreasing resource use and environmental effects from electricity production, but analysis based on current policies reveals some doubt in achieving the coal consumption intensity control target. Constrained with national control targets, the best route of technology innovation is calculated by integrated benefit targeting optimization. Supercritical (SC) and ultra-supercritical (USC) pressure boilers, flue gas desulfurization (FGD) and closed-cycle wet cooling with a high circulation ratio will be the mainstream technologies before 2030 based on current policy. It is inevitable to close or reconstruct small power plants from the late 2010s, and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) and pressurized fluidized bed combustion combined cycle (PFBC-CC) plants will show a competitive advantage in the late 2020s. However, air cooling and FGD systems will expand slower than the authorities' expectation, while higher water prices and SO2 charges promote the expansion. Stricter restrictions are also found to be positive for technological progress.
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