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| 1 |
ID:
116969
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Electrified vehicles can reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by shifting energy demand from gasoline to electricity. GHG reduction potential depends on vehicle design, adoption, driving and charging patterns, charging infrastructure, and electricity generation mix. We construct an optimization model to study these factors by determining optimal design of conventional vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs) with optimal allocation of vehicle designs and dedicated workplace charging infrastructure in the fleet for minimum life cycle cost or GHG emissions over a range of scenarios. We focus on vehicles with similar body size and acceleration to a Toyota Prius under government 5-cycle driving conditions. We find that under the current US grid mix, PHEVs offer only small GHG emissions reductions compared to HEVs, and workplace charging is insignificant. With grid decarbonization, PHEVs and BEVs offer substantial GHG emissions reductions, and workplace charging provides additional benefits. HEVs are optimal or near-optimal for minimum cost in most scenarios. High gas prices and low vehicle and battery costs are the major drivers for PHEVs and BEVs to enter and dominate the cost-optimal fleet. Carbon prices have little effect. Cost and range restrictions limit penetration of BEVs.
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| 2 |
ID:
103461
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper explores how Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles (PHEVs) may reduce source-to-wheel Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions from passenger vehicles. The two primary advances are the incorporation of (1) explicit measures of consumer interest in and potential use of different types of PHEVs and (2) a model of the California electricity grid capable of differentiating hourly and seasonal GHG emissions by generation source. We construct PHEV emissions scenarios to address inherent relationships between vehicle design, driving and recharging behaviors, seasonal and time-of-day variation in GHG-intensity of electricity, and total GHG emissions. A sample of 877 California new vehicle buyers provide data on driving, time of day recharge access, and PHEV design interests. The elicited data differ substantially from the assumptions used in previous analyses. We construct electricity demand profiles scaled to one million PHEVs and input them into an hourly California electricity supply model to simulate GHG emissions. Compared to conventional vehicles, consumer-designed PHEVs cut marginal (incremental) GHG emissions by more than one-third in current California energy scenarios and by one-quarter in future energy scenarios-reductions similar to those simulated for all-electric PHEV designs. Across the emissions scenarios, long-term GHG reductions depends on reducing the carbon intensity of the grid.
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