| Publication |
2011.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
This article explores the use and application of experimental methodologies in intelligence analysis. Previous experimental work has much to tell us about how people process information in making judgments. Calibration, and how appropriate levels of confidence might be improved with systematic feedback, is addressed. Training around uncertainty biases is covered. Extant experimental work suggests mechanisms and tests which might be used to better screen potential analysts for personality characteristics that might make them more suited for some tasks over others. The paradigm of experimental manipulation serves as a useful template for exploring alternative conceptualizations of uncertain environments.
|