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| 1 |
ID:
103629
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study investigates the impacts of high international oil prices on the bioethanol and corn markets in the US. Between 2007 and 2008, the prices of major grain crops had increased sharply, reflecting the rise in international oil prices. These dual price shocks had caused substantial harm to the global economy. Employing a structural vector auto-regression model (SVAR), we analyze how increases in international oil prices could impact the prices of and demand for corn, which is used as a major bioethanol feedstock in the US. The results indicate that an increase in the oil price would increase bioethanol demand for corn and corn prices in the short run and that corn prices would stabilize in the long run as corn exports and feedstock demand for corn decline. Consequently, policies supporting biofuels should encourage the use of bioethanol co-products for feed and the development of marginal land to mitigate increases in the feedstock price.
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| 2 |
ID:
110570
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study investigates the impacts of high international oil prices on the bioethanol and corn markets in the US. Between 2007 and 2008, the prices of major grain crops had increased sharply, reflecting the rise in international oil prices. These dual price shocks had caused substantial harm to the global economy. Employing a structural vector auto-regression model (SVAR), we analyze how increases in international oil prices could impact the prices of and demand for corn, which is used as a major bioethanol feedstock in the US. The results indicate that an increase in the oil price would increase bioethanol demand for corn and corn prices in the short run and that corn prices would stabilize in the long run as corn exports and feedstock demand for corn decline. Consequently, policies supporting biofuels should encourage the use of bioethanol co-products for feed and the development of marginal land to mitigate increases in the feedstock price.
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| 3 |
ID:
175521
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| Summary/Abstract |
Using the augmented version of the Blanchard-Perotti’s SVAR model, this article seeks to estimate the size of fiscal multipliers in Turkey for the period 2002:q3–2016:q2. Unlike many previous papers that use aggregate data in estimating the size of the fiscal multiplier, we use disaggregated data on taxes and government spending for the same purposes. Our empirical findings indicate that the size of the short-run fiscal multipliers for taxes much differs from that of government spending. Depending on the disaggregated tax and government spending instruments, it ranges from −0.83 to −0.27 for taxes, and from 0.02 to 0.98 for government spending, respectively. Overall, these findings corroborate the idea that a shock to taxes produces a non-Keynesian effect on GDP whereas government spending creates a (weak) Keynesian effect.
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| 4 |
ID:
162926
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper has examined the transmission of shocks from macroeconomic variables, namely money supply, inflation, exchange rate and real GDP onto natural gas consumption using Structural VAR (SVAR) model with sign restrictions. The results revealed that both in the short run and long run, natural gas consumption responds significantly to the shocks emanating from money supply and real GDP while its response to inflation shock is significant only in the short run but exchange rate shock is not significant. However, money supply has contributed greater proportion of the shocks followed by the real GDP, inflation and exchange rate in the ordering of the variance decomposition. The paper recommends that Nigerian authorities adjust the monetary policy tools towards regulating the money supply and checking the inflation rate to ensure increased demand for natural gas and sustained economic growth. On the response of natural gas consumption to the shock in the exchange rate, since the shock is positive though insignificant, it implies that depreciation of the exchange rate can discourage the demand for foreign exchange, imports and, boost the local production which would reciprocally lead to more natural gas consumption and improved growth in the country.
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| 5 |
ID:
149434
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper empirically analyzes the effects of tax shocks on private consumption expenditures in Turkey. For this purpose, private consumption expenditures are firstly decomposed into four major categories and then to which structural VAR (SVAR) model is employed using a data set for the period 2003:Q1–2013:Q3. The empirical findings of the paper show that both in the short and long run, private consumption expenditures are affected by value-added tax (VAT) and personal income tax. However, it is important to highlight that VAT plays a more important role in influencing private consumption expenditures than the other taxes under consideration. Overall, the findings reveal that the effects of tax shocks on private consumption expenditures vary depending on the types of taxes, components of the private expenditures, and length of the period.
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| 6 |
ID:
150367
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| Summary/Abstract |
Studies have indicated that there exists a relatively stable and positive correlation between electricity consumption and economic growth and there should not be a large deviation between them. However, the deviation between electricity consumption and economic growth in China during the Asian Financial Crisis and Global Economic Crisis sparks intense debates. We attempt to explain the deviation from the perspective of inventory investment adjustment in the business cycle using the SVAR model in this paper. The results show that the effects of inventory investment adjustment shock and electricity consumption structure shock on the deviation are positive but tend to be negative for electricity efficiency shock. The results of historical decomposition of these shocks also show that the inventory investment adjustment shock is the main factor that influences the deviation during the Global Economic Crisis. Economic fluctuation in the short term can not change the economic development pattern and the characteristics of electricity demand. Once the economy returns to stable growth, the deviation between electricity consumption and economic growth will shrink and disappear soon.
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