| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article examines the state of the art of early warning in Africa. It looks at the definitions of early warning, considers the historical evolution of conflict early warning systems, and takes a critical look at the debate about the link or the gap between early warning and early action. To this end, it tries to answer some important questions, particularly in relation to the purpose of early warning systems (EWSs) and their limitations so as to ensure that EWSs and early warning analysts are taken for what they are, and not criticised for what they are not or cannot do. In essence, it underscores the fact that the field of conflict early warning is not a fortune-telling business; an industry aimed at predicting socio-political events. The field and its different actors and mechanisms typically serve various purposes and rely on networks and open sources as well as cooperation. At times, some actions are indeed taken and potential conflicts prevented, but these actions do not come to the attention of outside observers precisely because nothing happened. It acknowledges, however, that the field can still learn from past experiences and improve on its delivery, at the level of both analysis and the ensuing action.
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