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| 1 |
ID:
104883
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Successive studies attempting to clarify national aspects of ethanol demand have assisted policy makers and producers in defining strategies, but little information is available on the dynamic of regional ethanol markets. This study aims to analyze the characteristics of ethanol demand at the regional level taking into account the peculiarities of the developed center-south and the developing north-northeast regions. Regional ethanol demand is evaluated based on a set of market variables that include ethanol price, consumer's income, vehicle stock and prices of substitute fuels; i.e., gasoline and natural gas. A panel cointegration analysis with monthly observations from January 2003 to April 2010 is employed to estimate the long-run demand elasticity. The results reveal that the demand for ethanol in Brazil differs between regions. While in the center-south region the price elasticity for both ethanol and alternative fuels is high, consumption in the north-northeast is more sensitive to changes in the stock of the ethanol-powered fleet and income. These, among other evidences, suggest that the pattern of ethanol demand in the center-south region most closely resembles that in developed nations, while the pattern of demand in the north-northeast most closely resembles that in developing nations.
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| 2 |
ID:
169737
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| Summary/Abstract |
Ethanol biofuel demand in Brazil is highly dependent on macroeconomic and policy drivers, making it difficult to anticipate future production and associated environmental implications. Here we develop scenarios of ethanol demand in Brazil towards 2030, based on a thorough examination of key influencing drivers, i.e. GDP and population growth, fleet composition, blending policies, fuel prices and energy efficiency. We then estimate their land-use implications using a detailed partial equilibrium model, GLOBIOM-Brazil. We find that ethanol demand is highly sensitive to the drivers considered and could increase between 37.4 and 70.7 billion litres in 2030 depending on the scenario. Such increase is 13% and 114% above the 2018 production. This represents an expansion in sugarcane area between 1.2 and 5 million hectares (14%–58% above the land-use in 2018). Compared to the low demand scenario, a high demand for ethanol in 2030 would drive sugarcane expansion mostly into pastureland (72%) and natural vegetation mosaics (19%). Our results suggest that future ethanol demand in Brazil should not substantially affect food production nor native forest. This outcome will however depend on the compliance with the sugarcane agro-ecological zoning (AEZ) by the ethanol sector in Brazil, a key assumption of our projections.
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