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| 1 |
ID:
121264
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Policies formulated to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, such as a low-carbon fuel standard, frequently rely on life-cycle assessment (LCA) to estimate emissions, but LCA results are often highly uncertain. This study develops life-cycle models that quantitatively and qualitatively describe the uncertainty and variability in GHG emissions for both fossil fuels and ethanol and examines mechanisms to reduce those uncertainties in the policy process. Uncertainty regarding emissions from gasoline is non-negligible, with an estimated 90% confidence interval ranging from 84 to 100 g CO2e/MJ. Emissions from biofuels have greater uncertainty. The widths of the 90% confidence intervals for corn and switchgrass ethanol are estimated to be on the order of 100 g CO2e/MJ, and removing emissions from indirect land use change still leaves significant remaining uncertainty. Though an opt-in policy mechanism can reduce some uncertainty by incentivizing producers to self-report fuel production parameters, some important parameters, such as land use change emissions and nitrogen volatilization, cannot be accurately measured and self-reported. Low-carbon fuel policies should explicitly acknowledge, quantify, and incorporate uncertainty in life cycle emissions in order to more effectively achieve emissions reductions. Two complementary ways to incorporate this uncertainty in low carbon fuel policy design are presented.
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| 2 |
ID:
104931
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Malaysia's transportation sector accounts for 41% of the country's total energy use. The country is expected to become a net oil importer by the year 2011. To encourage renewable energy development and relieve the country's emerging oil dependence, in 2006 the government mandated blending 5% palm-oil biodiesel in petroleum diesel. Malaysia produced 16 million tonnes of palm oil in 2007, mainly for food use. This paper addresses maximizing bioenergy use from oil-palm to support Malaysia's energy initiative while minimizing greenhouse-gas emissions from land-use change. When converting primary and secondary forests to oil-palm plantations between 270-530 and 120-190 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of biodiesel produced, respectively, is released. However, converting degraded lands results in the capture of between 23 and 85 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of biodiesel produced. Using various combinations of land types, Malaysia could meet the 5% biodiesel target with a net GHG savings of about 1.03 million tonnes (4.9% of the transportation sector's diesel emissions) when accounting for the emissions savings from the diesel fuel displaced. These findings are used to recommend policies for mitigating GHG emissions impacts from the growth of palm oil use in the transportation sector.
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