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| 1 |
ID:
104970
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
China made a commitment in Copenhagen to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP from 40% to 45% compared with the 2005 level by 2020, and is determined to vigorously develop non-fossil fuels. This study analyzes the effects and impacts of policies that could help to achieve China's Copenhagen commitments with a hybrid static CGE model in which the electricity sector is disaggregated into 12 generation technologies. Four scenarios are developed, including the reference scenario A, the reference scenario B and two carbon constraint scenarios. The results show that carbon intensity in terms of GDP will fall by 30.97% between 2005 and 2020 in the reference scenario A, and will be reduced further by 7.97% if China's targeted non-fossil energy development plans can be achieved in the reference scenario B. However, the rest of the 40-45% target must be realized by other measures such as carbon constraint. It is also observed that due to carbon intensity constraints, GDP loss would be from 0.032% to 0.24% compared to the reference scenario B, and CO2 emission reductions are due mainly to decreases in coal consumption in the electricity sector and manufacturing sector.
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| 2 |
ID:
150859
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This study assessed global onshore wind power resources considering the distance to urban areas in terms of transmission losses and costs, and visibility (landscape impact) restrictions. Including this factor decreased the economic potential considerably depending on the level of supply cost considered (at least 37% and 16% for an economic potential below 10 and 14 US cents/kWh, respectively). Its importance compared to other factors was secondary below 15 US cents/kWh. At higher costs it was secondary only to land use, and was more important than economic and technical factors. The impact of this factor was mixed across all regions of the world, given the heterogeneity of wind resources in remote and proximal areas. Regions where available resources decreased the most included the European Union, Japan, Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The supply cost chosen to evaluate the economic potential and uncertainties influencing the estimation of distance to the closest urban area are critical for the assessment. Neglecting the restrictions associated with integration into energy systems and social acceptability resulted in an overestimation of global onshore wind resources. These outcomes are fundamental for global climate policies because they help to clarify the limits of wind energy resource availability.
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| 3 |
ID:
116756
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper explores how China's household consumption patterns over the period 2005-2050 influence the total energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in two baseline scenarios, and how it influences carbon prices as well as the economic cost in the corresponding carbon mitigation scenarios. To this end we first put forward two possible household consumption expenditure patterns up to 2050 using the Working-Leser model, taking into account total expenditure increase and urbanization. For comparison, both expenditure patterns are then incorporated in a hybrid recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The results reveal that as income level increases in the coming decades, the direct and indirect household energy requirements and CO2 emissions would rise drastically. When household expenditure shifts from material products and transport to service-oriented goods, around 21,000 mtce1 of primary energy and 45 billion tons of CO2 emissions would be saved over the 45-year period from 2005 to 2050. Moreover, carbon prices in the dematerialized mitigation scenario would fall by 13% in 2050, thus reducing the economic cost.
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| 4 |
ID:
111363
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The purpose of the study is to analyze feasibility and a roadmap of a low-carbon society in Japan by 2050, while satisfying required demands. Future technology roadmaps, CO2 emission pathways and energy mix transitions leading Japan are calculated using the AIM/Backcasting Model based on backcasting methodology with taking into consideration that one of the keys for technological market penetration is the preferences of consumers. Under the CO2 emission target of 80% reduction as compared to 1990 level by 2050, it is found from the results that the target is feasible in Japan by implementing actions toward low-carbon society as early as possible. From the perspective of minimizing the total costs, it would be best to target a reduction rate of 16-20% in 2020, 31-35% in 2030 and 53-56% in 2040 within the range of Scenarios A and B. During this process, major investment will be needed in the early stage of the analytical periods, especially in the residential, commercial and transport sectors. However, viewed in the long term, this can be recovered by reduction in energy consumption. Moreover, the analysis suggests that returns that balance the total investment may be possible.
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| 5 |
ID:
125747
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Climate change and CO2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues. Recently Thailand has proposed policies on GHG mitigation such as Thailand's Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which aims at GHG mitigation in the energy sector. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, called "AIM/CGE" model, to analyse GHG mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in Thailand. Results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more GHG reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand, and increasing prices of emissions. The CCS technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization. In the energy security aspect, the policy options in this study would improve energy security, energy import dependency, and co-benefits of GHG mitigation in forms of improving local air quality. Results are also helpful to GHG mitigation policy in developing countries.
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