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| 1 |
ID:
104970
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
China made a commitment in Copenhagen to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP from 40% to 45% compared with the 2005 level by 2020, and is determined to vigorously develop non-fossil fuels. This study analyzes the effects and impacts of policies that could help to achieve China's Copenhagen commitments with a hybrid static CGE model in which the electricity sector is disaggregated into 12 generation technologies. Four scenarios are developed, including the reference scenario A, the reference scenario B and two carbon constraint scenarios. The results show that carbon intensity in terms of GDP will fall by 30.97% between 2005 and 2020 in the reference scenario A, and will be reduced further by 7.97% if China's targeted non-fossil energy development plans can be achieved in the reference scenario B. However, the rest of the 40-45% target must be realized by other measures such as carbon constraint. It is also observed that due to carbon intensity constraints, GDP loss would be from 0.032% to 0.24% compared to the reference scenario B, and CO2 emission reductions are due mainly to decreases in coal consumption in the electricity sector and manufacturing sector.
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| 2 |
ID:
116756
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper explores how China's household consumption patterns over the period 2005-2050 influence the total energy demand and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in two baseline scenarios, and how it influences carbon prices as well as the economic cost in the corresponding carbon mitigation scenarios. To this end we first put forward two possible household consumption expenditure patterns up to 2050 using the Working-Leser model, taking into account total expenditure increase and urbanization. For comparison, both expenditure patterns are then incorporated in a hybrid recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The results reveal that as income level increases in the coming decades, the direct and indirect household energy requirements and CO2 emissions would rise drastically. When household expenditure shifts from material products and transport to service-oriented goods, around 21,000 mtce1 of primary energy and 45 billion tons of CO2 emissions would be saved over the 45-year period from 2005 to 2050. Moreover, carbon prices in the dematerialized mitigation scenario would fall by 13% in 2050, thus reducing the economic cost.
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| 3 |
ID:
125747
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Climate change and CO2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues. Recently Thailand has proposed policies on GHG mitigation such as Thailand's Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which aims at GHG mitigation in the energy sector. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, called "AIM/CGE" model, to analyse GHG mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in Thailand. Results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more GHG reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand, and increasing prices of emissions. The CCS technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization. In the energy security aspect, the policy options in this study would improve energy security, energy import dependency, and co-benefits of GHG mitigation in forms of improving local air quality. Results are also helpful to GHG mitigation policy in developing countries.
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