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| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
147503
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| Summary/Abstract |
China is switching from economic growth based on extremely rapid capital accumulation to economic growth based on structural reforms and accelerated total factor productivity growth. Meanwhile, China will also face a serious excess saving problem as capital accumulation slows and, hence, needs to reduce its private saving rate. Based on this analysis, we estimated the economic impact of China's growth slowdown and hypothetical economic transformation on Japan, the USA and Germany using the world input–output database. We compared the following three scenarios for China's final demand in 2020 and economic growth from 2015 to 2020: (i) an optimistic scenario (GDP growth rate = 6.2%, investment/GDP = 0.501); (ii) a slowdown scenario (GDP growth rate = 4%, investment/GDP = 0.501); and (iii) a structural reform scenario (GDP growth rate = 6.2%, investment/GDP = 0.3). Our analysis suggests that Japan and Germany would suffer more from structural reforms in China than from a slowdown in growth. Meanwhile, for the USA, the employment decline triggered by structural reforms would be much smaller than the employment decline caused by a slowdown in growth.
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| 2 |
ID:
105277
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Focusing on Japanese, Korean, Taiwanese, and Chinese firms in the manufacturing sector, this paper examines productivity catch-up at the firm level using the distance from the technology frontier as a direct measure of the potential for catch-up. We also examine the role of absorptive capacity for technological catch-up by including variables such as R&D expenditure and foreign ownership in our empirical estimation. We find that the national frontier has a stronger pull on domestic firms than the regional frontier, which is in line with findings by Bartelsman, Haskel, and Martin (2008). This result indicates that policies to raise the technology level of national frontier firms are beneficial for all firms in that country.
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