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| 1 |
ID:
105748
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
China's vehicle population is widely forecasted to grow 6-11% per year into the foreseeable future. Barring aggressive policy intervention or a collapse of the Chinese economy, we suggest that those forecasts are conservative. We analyze the historical vehicle growth patterns of seven of the largest vehicle producing countries at comparable times in their motorization history. We estimate vehicle growth rates for this analogous group of countries to have 13-17% per year-roughly twice the rate forecasted for China by others. Applying these higher growth rates to China results in the total vehicle fleet reaching considerably higher volumes than forecasted by others, implying far higher global oil use and carbon emissions than projected by the International Energy Agency and others.
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| 2 |
ID:
112231
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This article presents an updated and upgraded methodology, the Fuel Economy and Environmental Impacts (FEEI) model (http://www.feeimodel.org/), to project vehicle sales and stock in China on the basis of our previous studies. The methodology presented has the following major improvements: it simulates private car ownership on an income-level basis, takes into account car purchase prices, separates sales into purchases for fleet growth and for replacements of scrapped vehicles, and examines various possible vehicle scrappage patterns for China. The results show that the sales of private light-duty passenger vehicles in China could reach 23-42 million by 2050, with the share of new-growth purchases representing 16-28%. The total vehicle stock may be 530-623 million by 2050. We compare this study to other publicly available studies in terms of both projection methodology and results. A sensitivity analysis shows that vehicle sales are more affected than levels of vehicle stock by the model parameters, which makes projecting sales more difficult owing to the lack of reliable input data for key model parameters. Because it considers key factors in detail, the sales and stock projection module of the FEEI model offers many advantages over previous models and is capable of simulating various policy scenarios.
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