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| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
105750
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The paper analyzes Iran's oil export capacity and the factors affecting it. First, the local energy demand is reviewed and crude oil, with 5.7% annual growth rate, is introduced as a major source to respond to the increasing domestic energy demand. Then, the national plans for controlling the local demand and replacing oil with other types of energy carriers are reviewed to create a view over the future of local demand for crude oil in Iran. In the next step, crude oil production and exploration situation in Iran are investigated and the required increase in production to maintain the present level of export is calculated. By estimating the average capital expenditures for adding each barrel of new capacity to Iran's daily oil production, the necessary annual investment to compensate the production drop and domestic consumption growth for maintaining the export is introduced. Then, the future of oil export in Iran is predicted in three optimistic, reference, and pessimistic scenarios on the basis of the country's ability in managing the financial resources in upstream oil industry. Finally, domestic and foreign investment and the history of buyback contracts and their undeniable role in development of Iranian oil and gas projects are discussed.
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| 2 |
ID:
115182
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
As the world economy highly depends on crude oil, it is important to understand the dynamics of crude oil production and export capacity of major oil-exporting countries. Since crude oil resources are predominately located in the OPEC Middle East, these countries are expected to have significant leverage in the world crude oil markets by taking into account a range of uncertainties. In this study, we develop a scenario for crude oil export and production using the ACEGES model considering uncertainties in the resource limits, demand growth, production growth, and peak/decline point. The results indicate that the country-specific peak of both crude oil export and production comes in the early this century in the OPEC Middle East countries. On the other hand, they occupy most of the world export and production before and after the peak points. Consequently, these countries are expected to be the key group in the world crude oil markets. We also find that the gap between the world crude oil demand and production broadens over time, meaning that the acceleration of the development of ultra-deep-water oil, oil sands, and extra-heavy oil will be required if the world continuous to heavily rely on oil products.
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