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| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
150058
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| Summary/Abstract |
Electricity consumption growth in China has experienced radical adjustment from high speed to medium speed with the advent of new economy normal. However, the investment enthusiasm on coal power remains unabated and leads to continuous operation efficiency deterioration in recent years. In this paper, we quantify the rational capacity and potential investment of coal power in China during the 13th FYP period (2016–2020). By employing power planning model and fully considering the power sector's contribution in the 15% non-fossil primary energy supply target by 2020, we estimate that the reasonable capacity addition space of coal power ranges between 50 GW and 100 GW, depending on the expected range of demand growth. We find that if all the coal power projects submitted for Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) approval were put into operation in 2020, capacity excess would reach 200 GW. Such huge overcapacity will bring forth disastrous consequences, including enormous investment waste, poor economic performance of generators and more importantly, delay of low-carbon energy transition. Finally, policy recommendations are proposed to address this issue.
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| 2 |
ID:
105782
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This document shows the importance of policies for electric energy savings and efficient energy utilization in power planning. The contributions of economic, social, and environmental items were evaluated according to their financial effects in the delay of investments, reduction of production costs and decrement of environmental emissions. The case study is Baja California, México; this system has a unique primary source: geothermal energy. Whether analyzing the planning as usual or planning from the supply side, the forecast for 2005-2025 indicates that 4500 MW additional installed capacity will be required (3-times current capacity), representing an investment that will emit 12.7 Mton per year of CO2 to the atmosphere and will cost US$2.8 billion. Systemic planning that incorporates polices of energy savings and efficiency allows the reduction of investments and pollutant emissions. For example, a reduction of 20% in the growth trend of the electricity consumption in the industrial customers would save US$10.4 billion over the next 20 years, with a potential reduction of 1.6 Mton/year of CO2. The increase in geothermal power generation is also attractive, and it can be combined with the reduction of use and energy losses of utilities, which would save US$13.5 billion and prevent the discharge of 8.5 Mton/year of CO2.
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