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ID:
105811
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper assesses the effect of intermittently renewable energy on generation capacity mix and market prices. We consider two generating technologies: (1) conventional fossil-fueled technology such as combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT), and (2) sunshine-dependent renewable technology such as photovoltaic cells (PV). In the first stage of the model (game), when only the probability distribution functions of future daily electricity demand and sunshine are known, producers maximize their expected profits by determining the CCGT and PV capacity to be constructed. In the second stage, once daily demand and sunshine conditions become known, each producer selects the daily production by each technology, taking the capacities of both technologies as given, and subject to the availability of the PV capacity, which can be used only if the sun is shining. Using real-world data for Israel, we confirm that the introduction of PV technology amplifies price volatility. A large reduction in PV capacity cost increases PV adoption but may also raise the average price. Thus, when considering the promotion of renewable energy to reduce CO2 emissions, regulators should assess the behavior of the electricity market, particularly with respect to characteristics of renewable technologies and demand and supply uncertainties.
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| 2 |
ID:
124718
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The cost of electricity generation using renewable technologies is widely assumed to be higher than the cost for conventional generation technologies, but likely to fall with growing experience of the technologies concerned. This paper tests the second part of that statement using learning rate analysis, based on large samples of wind and small hydro projects in India, and projects likely changes in these costs through 2020. It is the first study of learning rates for renewable generation technologies in India, and only the second in any developing country-it provides valuable input to the development of Indian energy policy and will be relevant to policy makers in other developing countries.
The paper considers some potential problems with learning rate analysis raised by Nordhaus (2009. The Perils of the Learning Model for Modeling Endogenous Technological Change. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series No. 14638). By taking account of these issues, it is possible both to improve the models used for making cost projections and to examine the potential impact of remaining forecasting problems.
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