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| 1 |
ID:
108575
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
China is the single most important factor for the future of North Korea. The
North's deteriorating economy, ailing leader, and seemingly unstable political
transition all could contribute to North Korea's dependence on external sources,
especially political and economic support from China. In considering the importance
of China's North Korea policy and its implications for regional security, this article
narrows its focus to China's policy toward North Korean defectors, the possibility
of change in that policy, and the regional security ramifications of the policy. By
highlighting the Chinese dilemma concerning North Korean escapees, that is, a
decision between interests and responsibility, this article argues that, despite
China's traditional policy stance on North Korea-summarized as its political
and economic support for the DPRK regime for the sake of regional peace and
stability-refugee problems between the two countries could be an issue of great
concern and conflict due to the meaningful efforts of concerned states and the
international community.
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| 2 |
ID:
106321
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The future of the two Koreas has a great influence on the security landscape of Northeast Asia. Because of this, an exploration of a variety of future possibilities regarding the rapidly changing Korean Peninsula and preparation for a sudden change is timely in order to avoid any catastrophic result. This article suggests two likely scenarios for the future of the two Koreas and assesses these two by exploring critical uncertainties that lie ahead. It argues that internal conditions, such as the North's nuclear weapons program, its ongoing political transition process, and the policies of regional powers such as the United States, are the most important factors in determining future outcomes on the Korean Peninsula. Based on a thorough exploration of these critical uncertainties, it concludes that policy-makers of the South Korean government and regional powers should take seriously the possible North Korean collapse scenario, while making every effort to promote peace on the Korean Peninsula by creating a stable North Korea.
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| 3 |
ID:
111525
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