| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The future of the two Koreas has a great influence on the security landscape of Northeast Asia. Because of this, an exploration of a variety of future possibilities regarding the rapidly changing Korean Peninsula and preparation for a sudden change is timely in order to avoid any catastrophic result. This article suggests two likely scenarios for the future of the two Koreas and assesses these two by exploring critical uncertainties that lie ahead. It argues that internal conditions, such as the North's nuclear weapons program, its ongoing political transition process, and the policies of regional powers such as the United States, are the most important factors in determining future outcomes on the Korean Peninsula. Based on a thorough exploration of these critical uncertainties, it concludes that policy-makers of the South Korean government and regional powers should take seriously the possible North Korean collapse scenario, while making every effort to promote peace on the Korean Peninsula by creating a stable North Korea.
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