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ID:
121865
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Five years after the global financial crisis, the economies of the United States and the eurozone continue to struggle. How will Southeast Asian economies be affected should there be a further deterioration in conditions in the eurozone? In this paper, we present estimates using a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model of the direct impacts of a further shock to the eurozone. We find that although the direct impacts are likely to be muted, it could trigger a much larger adjustment should it lead to a reassessment of risks and asset valuations. This is a real possibility given that vulnerability in the region has increased following massive inflows of capital and build-up of debt, related to successive bouts of quantitative easing in the United States initially, and now Japan. Should this happen, and with the IMF's resources already stretched, there is a pressing need to improve regional financial safety nets, which are currently unworkable, to deal with the fallout.
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| 2 |
ID:
106390
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The special issue of the ASEAN Economic Bulletin examines a number of policy issues relating to capital flows into Southeast Asia in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. The contributions to this volume address both thematic issues and country studies, examining a wide range of emerging issues relating to the influx of capital flows to the region. The findings and their policy implications offer insights into managing the impacts of crises in general and surges in capital flows in particular, as well as issues relating to post-crisis macroeconomic policy, currency realignment, and regional cooperation.
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