| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
While experts understand that Al Qaeda's attack patterns and operational qualities are changing, they struggle to identify and generate consensus on Al Qaeda's strategic center of gravity. By defining different levels of Al Qaeda, core, periphery, and movement, this article engages current debates about the threat by focusing on the operational differences across these three levels. Contrary to conventional wisdom about operational efficiency, the social movement has a higher success rate but the core imposes greater costs as measured by casualties. The cells or networks actually executing the attacks also display substantive differences. The social movement networks organize in smaller cells than either affiliated groups or the core; however, they display greater levels of connectedness. The affiliated and organization cells display fewer connections, suggestive of more disciplined operational procedure despite lower success rates. These patterns reflect fundamental differences across characterizations of Al Qaeda, and have significant implications for counterterrorism efforts.
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