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| 1 |
ID:
106337
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Integrated energy, environment, and economics modeling suggests that worldwide electrical energy use will increase to 12 TWe in 2100. Due to limitations of other low-carbon energy sources, nuclear power may be required to provide 30% of world electrical energy by 2100. Calculations of the associated stocks and flows of uranium, plutonium, and minor actinides indicate that the proliferation risks at mid-century, using current light-water reactor technology, are daunting. There are institutional arrangements that may be able to provide an acceptable level of risk mitigation, but they will be difficult to implement. If a transition is begun to fast-spectrum reactors at mid-century, the global nuclear proliferation risks become much greater by 2100, and more resistant to mitigation. Fusion energy, if successfully demonstrated to be economically competitive, would provide a source of nuclear power with much lower proliferation risks than fission.
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| 2 |
ID:
106333
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The survivability of China's ballistic missile submarines and submarine-launched ballistic missiles is examined. First, the Type 094 ballistic missile submarine is noisy and vulnerable even in shallow waters. This suggests the urgency for China to improve the quietness of the Type 094. Second, after the deployment of the U.S. interceptor missile, SM-3 Block IIA, in 2018, China's intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles launched from Chinese coastal waters would face a three-layer engagement, constructed by SM-3 IIAs deployed near China's coastal waters, ground-based interceptors deployed in California and Alaska, and SM-3 IIAs deployed near U.S. coastal waters respectively. These deployments could undermine the credibility of China's nuclear deterrence. It would be well for China and the United States to work together to improve strategic stability between these two states.
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| 3 |
ID:
106336
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The graphite isotope ratio method can give an accurate estimate of the total plutonium production in a graphite-moderated reactor without detailed information on the reactor's operating history. Transmutation of trace impurities in the graphite is directly related to the cumulative plutonium production in the nuclear fuel. This study explains how the total amount of plutonium produced in the five megawatt electric graphite reactor at Yongbyon could be estimated using the Graphite Isotope Ratio Method (GIRM) technique once a number of strategically located samples from the graphite moderator are available.
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