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| 1 |
ID:
107997
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
China's economic development since 1978 is one of the most significant events in recent history. Many aspects of this development have been extensively analyzed in the published literature. However, the implications of China's growth for other countries have been relatively neglected. The present paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature. The paper first presents some facts on China's role in the world economy, and then measures the impact of China's growth on growth in the rest of the world in both the short term and the long term. Short-run estimates based on vector autoregression and error correction models suggest that spillover effects of China's growth have increased in recent decades. Long-term spillover effects, estimated through growth regressions based on panel data, are also significant and have extended in recent decades beyond Asia. The estimates are robust to the effects of global and regional shocks, changes in model specification, and sample period.
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| 2 |
ID:
107996
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
On 18 March 2011, the China Association for World Economics hosted "The Presentation of the 2010 Pushan Award for Excellent Papers on International Economics" at the China Central University of Finance and Economics. Over 700 scholars and students from home and abroad attended the ceremony. Professor Joseph Stiglitz, the winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, presented the awards and gave a speech on "The Failure of Economics in America." The following speech transcript has been approved and edited kindly by Professor Stiglitz.
The editor thanks Eamon Kircher-Allen for assistance.
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| 3 |
ID:
107999
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Using official provincial data for gross provincial product, consumer price index and other explanatory variables from 1986 to 2006, the present paper investigates the nonlinear effects of inflation on economic growth in China. The main finding of the study is that the inflation threshold effect is highly significant and robust in China. Above the 2.50 percent threshold, every 1-percentage point increase in the inflation rate impedes economic growth by 0.61 percent; below this threshold, every 1-percentage point increase in the inflation rate stimulates growth by 0.53 percent. This indicates that high inflation harms economic growth, whereas moderate inflation benefits growth. We suggest that China should maintain a moderate inflation rate for long-run growth.
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| 4 |
ID:
108001
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper aims to systematically investigate the impacts of strengthening intellectual property rights on patenting in China's high-technology industries and to explore the potential differences in response to patent reform by ownership. Empirical results show that the estimated patent elasticity of R&D is lower than that for OECD countries, indicating relatively low R&D productivity for China's high-technology industries. The direct innovation effect of technology imports is negative, while the absorptive ability embodied in R&D helps in gaining external sources of knowledge, thus contributing to innovations. Specifically, strengthening intellectual property rights can induce more innovations in terms of patents in China's high-technology industries and is particularly relevant to foreign-owned high-technology enterprises.
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| 5 |
ID:
107998
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The present paper examines the role of the mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules in determining inflation dynamics using fiscal and monetary policy reaction functions and Markov-switching vector autoregression methods based on quarterly data in the period 1992-2007. Our results show that fiscal and monetary policies in China can be adequately described using some simple rules, and that significant regime shifts took place around 1998. Fiscal policy tended to be active and countercyclical in the pre-1998 period, then switched to be passive and more countercyclical, whereas monetary policy was characterized as passive and procyclical in the pre-1998 period, and switched to be active and countercyclical afterwards. The mix of fiscal and monetary policy rules can explain inflation dynamics better than the monetary policy rule alone. Therefore, price stability requires not only appropriate monetary policy but also appropriate fiscal policy.
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| 6 |
ID:
108000
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The paper provides for the first time empirical evidence on the impact of economic globalization on bank efficiency in a developing economy. Using the data envelopment analysis method, we compute the efficiency of the Chinese banking sector during 2000-2007. The empirical findings suggest that the inefficiency of the Chinese banking sector stems largely from scale rather than pure technical inefficiencies. Examining different components of economic globalization, we find that greater economic integration through higher trade flows, cultural proximity and political globalization have significant and positive influence on bank efficiency levels. The empirical findings suggest that liberalization (restrictions) of the capital account exerts a negative (positive) influence on bank efficiency levels in China.
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| 7 |
ID:
107995
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The international dollar standard is malfunctioning. Near-zero US short-term interest rates launch massive hot money outflows into emerging markets (EM) in Asia and Latin America. Each EM central bank buys dollars to prevent its currency from appreciating but loses monetary control. Despite some appreciation, average inflation in EMs is now much higher than in the old industrial economies and world commodity prices are bid up sharply. This inflation on the dollar's periphery only registers in the US CPI with a long lag. However, the more immediate effect of the Fed's zero interest rate is to upset the process of bank intermediation within the American economy. Bank credit continues to decline while employment languishes. Therefore, constructive international monetary reform calls for the Fed to abandon its zero-interest rate policy, which is best done in cooperation with the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England also abandoning their ultra low interest rates.
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