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| 1 |
ID:
176839
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| Summary/Abstract |
A transition to a more efficient heat energy system requires the consideration of drivers covering behavioural change, upgrades of the building stock and substitution or improvements in technologies in use. Sweden has set the target to reduce total energy demand per heated area in buildings by 50% by 2050 compared to 1995. This study aims to estimate the potential for reducing heat energy demand in the Swedish residential building stock taking into account behavioural, structural and technological categories of drivers. A combination of bottom-up energy modelling with scenario methodology informed by socio-technical analysis of barriers was used. Our results show that the target can be achieved by combining at least two of the categories of drivers. However, it is noteworthy that the technological category, which has by far the lowest level of barriers, almost reaches the target largely owing to the high impact for single-family houses, showing the crucial role of changes in the technology mix. However, as the same drivers have different demand reduction potential in the two main building types in Sweden, single and multi-family houses, this calls for policymakers to lead on initiatives that foster a combination of technological, behavioural and structural improvements for the latter.
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| 2 |
ID:
109640
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper reports on the Austrian research project "Renewable energy in Austria: Modeling possible development trends until 2020". The project investigated possible economic and ecological effects of a substantially increased use of renewable energy sources in Austria. Together with stakeholders and experts, three different scenarios were defined, specifying possible development trends for renewable energy in Austria. The scenarios were simulated for the period 2006-2020, using the integrated environment-energy-economy model "e3.at". The modeling results indicate that increasing the share of renewable energy sources in total energy use is an important but insufficient step towards achieving a sustainable energy system in Austria. A substantial increase in energy efficiency and a reduction of residential energy consumption also form important cornerstones of a sustainable energy policy.
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| 3 |
ID:
111320
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Current debate focuses on the need for the transport sector to contribute to more ambitious carbon emission reduction targets. In the UK, various macro-economic and energy system wide, top-down models are used to explore the potential for energy demand and carbon emissions reduction in the transport sector. These models can lack the bottom-up, sectoral detail needed to simulate the effects of integrated demand and supply-side policy strategies to reduce emissions. Bridging the gap between short-term forecasting and long-term scenario "models", this paper introduces a newly developed strategic transport, energy, emissions and environmental impacts model, the UK Transport Carbon Model (UKTCM). The UKTCM covers the range of transport-energy-environment issues from socio-economic and policy influences on energy demand reduction through to life cycle carbon emissions and external costs. The model is demonstrated in this paper by presenting the results of three single policies and one policy package scenario. Limitations of the model are also discussed. Developed under the auspices of the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) the UKTCM can be used to develop transport policy scenarios that explore the full range of technological, fiscal, regulatory and behavioural change policy interventions to meet UK climate change and energy security goals.
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