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| 1 |
ID:
116991
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Since China decontrolled coal prices, its coal price has risen steadily and been unusually volatile. In 2011 in particular, high coal prices and capped electricity prices in China discouraged coal-fired power generation, triggering widespread power shortages. We suggest that these coal-price disturbances could be symptomatic of a major change in pricing dynamics of global fossil-fuel markets, with increasing correspondence between coal and oil prices globally. Historically, global coal prices have been more stable and lower than oil and natural gas prices on a per-heat basis. In recent years, however, coal prices have been increasingly volatile worldwide and have tracked other fossil fuel prices more closely. Meanwhile, the recent development of unconventional gas has substantially decoupled US natural gas and oil prices. Technically, low US natural gas prices, with potential fuel switching, could drive US domestic coal prices lower. However, this effect is unlikely to counteract the overall trend in increasing coal consumption globally. China's market size and unique, partially-controlled energy system make its reform agenda a key force in the global economy. Policymakers in the US, E.U. and elsewhere should monitor China's economic reform agenda to anticipate and respond to changes accompanying China's increasing importance in the global energy economy.
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| 2 |
ID:
111394
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
For more than a decade, Nobel laureate George Olah and coworkers have advocated the Methanol Economy - replacing petroleum-based fuels and chemicals with methanol and methanol-derivatives - as a path to sustainable development. A first step to this vision appears to be occurring in China. In the past five years, China has quickly built an industry of coal-based methanol and dimethyl ether (DME) that is competitive in price with petroleum-based fuels. Methanol fuels offer many advantages, including a high octane rating and cleaner-burning properties than gasoline. Methanol also has some disadvantages. A coal-based Methanol Economy could enhance water shortages in China, increase net carbon dioxide emissions, and add volatility to regional and global coal prices. China's rapidly expanding Methanol Economy provides an interesting experiment for what could happen elsewhere if methanol is widely adopted, as proposed by Olah and researchers before him.
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| 3 |
ID:
109657
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Climate change policy involving a price on carbon would change the mix of power plants and the amount of water they withdraw and consume to generate electricity. We analyze what these changes could entail for electricity generation in the United States under four climate policy scenarios that involve different costs for emitting CO2 and different technology options for reducing emissions out to the year 2030. The potential impacts of the scenarios on the U.S. electric system are modeled using a modified version of the U.S. National Energy Modeling System and water-use factors for thermoelectric power plants derived from electric utility data compiled by the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Under all the climate-policy scenarios, freshwater withdrawals decline 2-14% relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario of no U.S. climate policy. Furthermore, water use decreases as the price on CO2 under the climate policies increases. At relatively high carbon prices (>$50/tonne CO2), however, retrofitting coal plants to capture CO2 increases freshwater consumption compared to BAU in 2030. Our analysis suggests that climate policies and a carbon price will reduce both electricity generation and freshwater withdrawals compared to BAU unless a substantial number of coal plants are retrofitted to capture CO2.
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