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| 1 |
ID:
109709
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| Publication |
2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper is focused on a new methodology for the global assessment of wind power potential. Most of the previous works on the global assessment of the technological potential of wind power have used bottom-up methodologies (e.g. [2], [4] and [31]). Economic, ecological and other assessments have been developed, based on these technological capacities. However, this paper tries to show that the reported regional and global technological potential are flawed because they do not conserve the energetic balance on Earth, violating the first principle of energy conservation (Gans et al., 2010). We propose a top-down approach, such as that in Miller et al. (2010), to evaluate the physical-geographical potential and, for the first time, to evaluate the global technological wind power potential, while acknowledging energy conservation. The results give roughly 1 TW for the top limit of the future electrical potential of wind energy. This value is much lower than previous estimates and even lower than economic and realizable potentials published for the mid-century (e.g. [8], [10] and [52]).
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| 2 |
ID:
117245
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The perspectives of the depletion of fossil energy resources, together with the consequences of climate change, have provoked the development of numerous national and pluri-national energy policies. However, there have been few overall studies on the evolution of these resources. This paper uses a dynamic model to study the exhaustion patterns of world fossil and nuclear fuels and their possible replacement by renewable energy sources. The results show that peak oil will be the first restriction and it will not be easily overcome. Electric vehicles can produce some interesting savings, but they are insufficient to avoid the decline in oil. Biofuels are even more limited, due to the enormous extensions of fertile land they require and their low productivity. This shows that overcoming the decline in oil will need much more ambitious policies than the mere substitution of technology. If the "oil-economy" relationship does not change substantially, world economic growth may be seriously limited or even negative. In contrast, the production of electrical energy is not such a worrying problem in the short and middle-term.
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