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| 1 |
ID:
110252
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper presents new estimates of capital inputs in the Chinese economy. Estimates are made for the total economy (1953-2007), for the industrial sector (1953-2007) and for manufacturing (1985-2007). The capital input estimates for industry and manufacturing are also broken down by thirty regions. The paper makes a systematic attempt to apply SNA (System of National Accounts) concepts to the estimation of capital inputs, according to the Perpetual Inventory Method. It makes a clear distinction between capital services from a productivity perspective and wealth capital stocks. The paper provides a detailed analysis of the relevant Chinese statistical concepts and data. It provides an explanation of the procedures followed in constructing the new national and regional capital input series.
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| 2 |
ID:
110256
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2012.
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Studies of the return to education in urban China have reported that this has increased over time, and that females typically have a higher return than males. In this paper we adopt a framework provided by the over education/required education/under education literature, and the decomposition developed by Chiswick and Miller (2008), to investigate the reasons for these findings. The finding by Chen and Hamori (2009), from analysis of data for 2004 and 2006, of the return to schooling for males exceeding that for females, is also examined using this decomposition.
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| 3 |
ID:
110258
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines block transactions in the Chinese equity market. We find that most of the block transactions are traded at prices at or below the closing price of the regular continuous auction market, and more than half are traded at or below the lowest price of the day. Consistent with the price pattern indicating that the block transactions are seller-initiated, the overall market reaction is negative. However, we find a different market reaction to block transactions when the buyer is represented by China International Capital Corporation (CICC), the number one investment bank in China which counts many foreign institutional investors as its clients. The positive reaction is consistent with the buyer-certification hypothesis, that is, the fact that some smart institutional buyers enter block trade indicates the buyers' assessment of undervaluation.
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| 4 |
ID:
110255
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper analyzes the changes in public-private sector earnings differentials for local residents in urban China between 2002 and 2007. We find that earnings gaps across ownership sectors decreased during this period and that the convergence trend has been in favor of the private and semi-public sectors as opposed to the public sector. This trend is in sharp contrast to what occurred at the turn of the 21st century when employees in the government and state-owned enterprises were found to enjoy a privileged situation. Differences in endowments are found to play a growing role in explaining earnings differentials. However, although it is becoming less of an issue, segmentation across ownership remains important, especially for high-wage earners.
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| 5 |
ID:
110249
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper introduces a regime-switching forward-looking Taylor rule to describe the monetary policy behavior and considers its estimation using a two-step MLE procedure due to Kim and Nelson (2006), Kim (2009) and Zheng and Wang (2010). By doing an empirical analysis on quarterly data for China over the period 1992-2010, our results show that the actual reactions of China's monetary policy can be well characterized by a two-regime forward-looking Taylor rule. Furthermore, it is also suggested that the interest rate policy in response to inflation and output gap is asymmetric, behaving a significant characteristic of regime-switching nonlinearity. Specifically, in the first regime the People's Bank of China targets inflation, but not focuses on the output gap; while in the second regime the central bank targets the output gap and the policy rule is not a stable framework.
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| 6 |
ID:
110246
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
A dynamic computable general equilibrium model is developed to assess the impact of the recent global recession and the Chinese government's stimulus package on China's economic growth. By designing two scenarios - one with and one without the stimulus package - the model results show that GDP growth rate in 2009 could have fallen to 2.9% without the stimulus package, mainly as a result of the sharp decline in exports of manufactured goods. Under the stimulus scenario, with the generated additional demand on investment goods, the Chinese economy grows 8-10% in 2009 and the succeeding years. The model also measures the overall gains of the stimulus package, and the cumulative GDP growth difference between the two scenarios for 2009-15 is about RMB76 trillion.
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| 7 |
ID:
110248
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines the extent to which Chinese farmers are connected to regional agricultural markets by looking at the intensity of price transmission from retail markets to the farmgate. This intensity is indicative of the extent to which farmers might benefit from improved marketing opportunities and be exposed to price risks. We estimate the elasticity of farmgate prices to retail prices using price data for 170 markets, in 29 out of 33 provinces of China, at the detail of 12 main products and for the five-year period 1996 to 2000. In each province we find strong linkages between retail and farmgate prices with elasticities ranging between 0.6 and 1 and intensifying over time. This suggests that Chinese farmers are generally well connected to retail markets and that this connectivity has strengthened in the period considered, creating not only new opportunities but also new risks. It is also found that linkages are relatively weak in inland provinces, which is a point of concern in view of Chinese policies to create equal opportunities and equitable growth.
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| 8 |
ID:
110254
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Groenewold et al. (2004) documented that the Chinese stock market is inefficient. In this paper, we revisit the efficiency problem of the Chinese stock market using time-series model based trading rules. Our paper distinguishes itself from previous studies in several aspects. First, while previous studies concentrate on the viability of linear forecasting techniques, we evaluate the profitability of the forecasts of the self-exciting threshold autoregressive model (SETAR), and compare it with the conventional linear AR and MA trading rules. Second, the findings of market inefficiency in earlier studies mainly rest on the statistical significance of the autocorrelation or regression coefficients. In contrast, this paper directly examines the profitability of various trading rules. Third, our sample covers an extensive period of 1991-2010. Sub-sample analysis shows that positive returns mainly concentrate in the pre-SOE reform period, suggesting that China's stock market has become more efficient after the reform.
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| 9 |
ID:
110251
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper investigates the endogenous linkages between farmers' machinery investment decision and off-farm employment in China. Both the theoretical model and the empirical results based on a survey of 453 households in Anhui Province indicate that agricultural labor input and small-sized machinery investment are gross complements rather than substitutes when machinery services are available in the market. Consequently, farmers with small-sized machinery are more likely to reduce their off-farm employment time. On the other hand, an increase in off-farm employment is more likely to reduce the possibility of possessing small-sized machineries mainly due to substitution effects of market machinery services.
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| 10 |
ID:
110250
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper examines empirically the Phillips curve relationship for the Chinese economy. We use quarterly data that go back to 1978 and employ a multivariate rather than univariate method in the construction of gap measures for inflation, money and output jointly with reliable error bands. Our empirical results show that the inflation gap and the output gap fit a New Phillips curve very well. We also find some structural change in the inflation-output trade-off.
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| 11 |
ID:
110259
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
China's fiscal arrangement in the 1980s has preserved local governments' incentive but the 1994 fiscal reform recentralized revenues. Since then, farmers' tax burdens have risen steeply and become a major challenge to the state legitimacy. How to account for the huge regional variation? Why were some localities able to tax more heavily than others? Based on a national survey of village governance in China, we examine farmers' burdens empirically and identify political and social factors that explain the local governments' ability to tax farmers. This paper suggests that developments since the 1990s have shown that it overstates local discretionary power and does not pay enough attention to societal forces in understanding local public finance.
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| 12 |
ID:
110253
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
China has undergone a rapid epidemiological transition from infectious to chronic diseases, a process characterized by widespread under-diagnosis of chronic diseases and low rates of treatment and control. This paper uses hypertension as an example and documents the association of socioeconomic status with various measures of this condition, i.e., prevalence, awareness, treatment and control. We find no wealth and education gradients in the prevalence of hypertension. Given education, wealth plays some roles in improving the treatment and control of hypertension. Some associations exist between education and diagnosis/treatment/control in urban areas but not in rural areas. We also find that the public health care services in China contribute little in informing patients of their hypertension status, suggesting that how to improve the effectiveness of the health care system in dealing with emerging chronic illnesses should be policy priority.
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| 13 |
ID:
110247
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper serves to document and analyze the employment and the labor market changes in urban China since the late 1980s. High and sustained GDP growth rates in China have paradoxically been accompanied by increasing unemployment rates and decreasing labor force participation rates. Using national representative micro data, estimations from logit models show that age, education, communist-party membership and marital status are significantly associated with participation in the labor force and employment opportunities, and the impacts of education and party membership have increased over time. An extension of the Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition finds little of the observed male-female differentials attributable to differences in characteristics such as age or education but to coefficient effects, a possible reflection of discrimination.
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| 14 |
ID:
110257
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
The 'monopoly face' of unions suggests that the rent-seeking activities of unions discourage research and development investment and that the collective bargaining rules may restrict management flexibility, thus deterring innovations. On the other hand, the arrival of unions in the workplace may 'shock' the management into adopting more systematic rather than ad hoc management practices and that such innovative workplace practices may enhance an organization's ability to introduce new products and/or new processes. Further, the 'voice face' of unions argues that the independent 'questioning' of the management deliberations by the unions can also lead to better, more creative and, hence, more productive solutions. This paper investigates the link between unions and firm innovations in China. Different from their counterparts in advanced economies, Chinese unions are found to encourage firm innovations and R&D investment.
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