|
|
|
Sort Order |
|
|
|
Items / Page
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
130539
|
|
|
|
|
| Publication |
2014.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
This paper measures the economic impacts of climate change on China's grain production by using provincial time series data over a 32-year period. The panel data model and time series region model with/without adaptation are applied at the same time to assess the effectiveness of a common production function. To capture the effects of weather variables we employ a random coefficients model where the production elasticities are the logarithmic function on temperature and rainfall. A Cobb-Douglas production function with additional interaction between inputs and climate variables is applied. We find that the economic impacts of climate change are mixed, that is, some regions are winners and others are losers, and the effect is crop-specific, not general. With adaptation, the economic impacts of warming on grain production are always positive; less precipitation will benefit rice production, but will harm wheat and maize production. Most of the central, western and northern China, which have already been adapted, are less sensitive to climate variables, but some eastern provinces, such as Shandong and Hebei, are very vulnerable. However, this study finds that the adaptation by irrigation is not sensitive to climate change. In summary, the analysis indicates that policymakers should recognize that the climate change would change the productivity of factors, so a regional and crop-specific total-factor-adaptation model is recommended.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
ID:
110495
|
|
|
|
|
| Publication |
2011.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
Grain self-sufficiency is one of the most important agricultural policy goals in China. With only modest imports, China has succeeded in feeding 22% of the world's population on only 7% of its land. However, a high price has been paid for this enormous achievement. Increase in grain yields, in particular in rice, as the main source of production growth, relied heavily on intensive use of physical inputs and increasing intensity of farming systems. Soil degradation, water scarcity, and severe pollution were among the consequences as well as declining efficiency of fertilizer application. Using county-level panel data from 1980 to 2003 and graphical (GIS-based) analysis, this paper first looks at the spatial change of the major grain production across regions over the past two decades, towards the northern and northeastern provinces. The analysis is complemented by using a random panel data model, which underscores the significant influence of land availability, degree of urbanization, and government policy on grain production. Finally, this analysis addresses environmental stress which includes both soil degradation and water shortage. The latter is already severe in many of the traditional grain producing areas, but will now become a bigger problem in the "new" grain producing areas, as these have traditionally much less water resources. Hence, while the economic rational of the "grain shift" towards the northern and northeastern regions is understandable, its sustainability is not guaranteed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|