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| 1 |
ID:
125410
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Wind power generation and its impacts on electricity prices has strongly increased in the EU. Therefore, appropriate mark-to-market evaluation of new investments in wind power and energy storage plants should consider the fluctuant generation of wind power and uncertain electricity prices, which are affected by wind power feed-in (WPF). To gain the input data for WPF and electricity prices, simulation models, such as econometric models, can serve as a data basis.
This paper describes a combined modeling approach for the simulation of WPF series and electricity prices considering the impacts of WPF on prices based on an autoregressive approach. Thereby WPF series are firstly simulated for each hour of the year and integrated in the electricity price model to generate an hourly resolved price series for a year. The model results demonstrate that the WPF model delivers satisfying WPF series and that the extended electricity price model considering WPF leads to a significant improvement of the electricity price simulation compared to a model version without WPF effects. As the simulated series of WPF and electricity prices also contain the correlation between both series, market evaluation of wind power technologies can be accurately done based on these series.
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| 2 |
ID:
175036
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| Summary/Abstract |
Coal power accounts for a major share within electricity production and significantly contributes to the overall greenhouse gas emissions in many European countries. According to official reports, Germany will not achieve its emission reduction targets in 2020. Therefore, a shut-down of coal capacities is currently being discussed and a plan is developed by the so-called Coal Commission.
In this study, we analyse the effects of a national coal phase-out policy on carbon emissions and prices, and compare these to the effects of EU-wide coal phase-out policies. Considering high CO certificate prices and ambitious renewable energy targets, a coal phase-out in Germany would have a minor additional impact on overall European emissions. An EU-wide coal phase-out however, would significantly reduce the emissions, by around 19%. Alternatively, a very high CO certificate price policy provides an even greater reduction in CO emissions.
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| 3 |
ID:
110576
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Many scenarios have been generated in the last years analysing the international energy market. The variety of these scenarios is manifold, as they are generated by different institutions using different methodological approaches and different framework assumptions. However, these scenarios can roughly be classified into three main groups: "moderate", "climate protection" and "resource scarcity and high fossil fuel prices". Analysing the German energy market makes a fourth scenario group necessary, which considers the possible revision of the decided nuclear energy phase out. Most of the existing scenarios developed by different institutions can be allocated into one of these groups. A representative scenario for each group has been selected to illustrate the development of the energy sector until 2030. Contrary to the worldwide primary energy demand (PED), the German PED decreases in each scenario, even though the drop differs strongly throughout the scenarios. On the other hand the structure of the PED in 2030 varies strongly for each scenario, especially regarding the share of fossil energy sources. However, a common robust result can be observed throughout all scenarios, namely the high increase in the share of the renewable energy resources, although the scenario generation processes are not always robust.
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