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| 1 |
ID:
117012
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Many estimates of the social cost of CO2 emissions (SCCO2) can be found in the climate economics literature. However, to date few estimates of the social costs of other greenhouse gases have been published, and most are not comparable to current estimates of the SCCO2. We construct an integrated assessment model that combines MAGICC and economic components from DICE to estimate the social costs of CO2, CH4, and N2O for the years 2010-2050, using assumptions similar to the recent U.S. government interagency SCC working group. We compare our estimates of the social costs for non-CO2 gases to those produced using the SCCO2 to value "CO2-equivalent" emissions, calculated using global warming potentials (GWPs). We examine the estimation error associated with using GWPs for single- and multi-gas abatement policies. In both cases the error can be large, so estimates of the social costs of these gases should be used whenever possible. However, if direct estimates are not available the value of reductions estimated using GWPs will typically have lower absolute errors than default estimates of zero, and provide lower bounds of the abatement benefits.
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| 2 |
ID:
137692
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Global warming mitigation has recently become a priority worldwide. A large body of literature dealing with energy related problems has focused on reducing greenhouse gases emissions at an engineering scale. In contrast, the minimization of climate change at a wider macroeconomic level has so far received much less attention. We investigate here how to mitigate global warming by performing changes in an economy. To this end, we make use of a systematic tool that combines three methods: linear programming, environmentally extended input output models, and life cycle assessment principles. The problem of identifying key economic sectors that contribute significantly to global warming is posed in mathematical terms as a bi-criteria linear program that seeks to optimize simultaneously the total economic output and the total life cycle CO2 emissions. We have applied this approach to the European Union economy, finding that significant reductions in global warming potential can be attained by regulating specific economic sectors. Our tool is intended to aid policy makers in the design of more effective public policies for achieving the environmental and economic targets sought.
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| 3 |
ID:
133082
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Panama recently enacted a new law, which aims to promote wind energy by mandating long term power purchase tenders. The implications of this new law lend some uncertainty to Panama×s electricity development pathway. This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of power generation in Panama, and explores various potential future scenarios and the associated impacts on the system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity index. To this end, this study applies the scenario development methodology developed by Schwartz in the context of the energy-economic modeling platform 'Long-range Energy Alternative Planning' (LEAP). Four scenarios are developed and analyzed. The Business as Usual scenario extrapolates the electricity generation trend that has been observed over the last decade; it is compared to three alternative scenarios which have more specific objectives. Scenario 1 encourages climate mitigation without incorporating new technologies in the generation mix, Scenario 2 maximizes resource diversity, and Scenario 3 minimizes global warming potential. For each scenario, the composition of the electricity generation profile, system marginal cost, global warming potential, and resource diversity is predicted quantitatively. These scenarios to not attempt to forecast likely developments, but rather illuminate the tradeoffs that different development pathways entail.
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| 4 |
ID:
110758
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2011.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Shale gas is viewed by many as a global energy game-changer. However, serious concerns exist that shale gas generates more greenhouse gas emissions than does coal. In this work the related published data are reviewed and a reassessment is made. It is shown that the greenhouse gas effect of shale gas is less than that of coal over long term if the higher power generation efficiency of shale gas is taken into account. In short term, the greenhouse gas effect of shale gas can be lowered to the level of that of coal if methane emissions are kept low using existing technologies. Further reducing the greenhouse gas effect of shale gas by storing CO2 in depleted shale gas reservoirs is also discussed, with the conclusion that more CO2 than the equivalent CO2 emitted by the extracted shale gas could be stored in the reservoirs at significantly reduced cost.
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