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UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS (2) answer(s).
 
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1
ID:   113447


Evaluation of feed-in tariff regulation of Turkey for onshore w / Erturk, Mehmet   Journal Article
Erturk, Mehmet Journal Article
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Publication 2012.
Summary/Abstract Renewable energy sources have become popular with the technological developments, the increase in the price of fossil fuels and the environmental concerns. These factors have also prompted Turkey to utilize her rich renewable energy sources to meet her increasing electricity demand which is around 7% annually. Therefore, the Renewable Energy Law was enacted in 2005 to incentivize the utilization of domestic renewable sources with feed-in tariffs. In this study, onshore wind energy potential of Turkey is analyzed to find out whether these regulations and incentives will help the utilization of onshore wind energy potential. To that end, some background information about technology and cost of onshore wind power plants, the wind energy potential of Turkey and the current regulatory framework related to wind energy are explained. Then, a model is set up to conduct economic analysis by calculating NPV for the base case scenario and under the uncertain environment. The results show that an onshore wind energy potential of about 13 GW having a wind speed of 7.5 m/s or higher can be utilized profitably with the current feed-in tariff as the wind capacity of more than 100 GW cannot be utilized economically.
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2
ID:   112264


Life cycle implication of the potential commercialization of st / Liu, Beibei (et al)   Journal Article
Liu, Beibei Journal Article
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Publication 2012.
Summary/Abstract This article discusses an integrated framework built to compute the cost of stover-based E85, as well as its life cycle energy efficiency and CO2 emission, with consideration of uncertainties of the policy-related factors, in China. Results show that co-product treatment greatly influenced the performance of E85 route. The calculated values of energy efficiency in co-product burning for electricity scenario (the base scenario) and that in co-product for selling scenario (the alternative scenario) are 4.41 and 3.61, respectively. CO2 emission of the stover-based route is 99.7% more than that of the gasoline route in the base scenario and 55.3% less than that of the gasoline in the alternative scenario. The costs of E85 in these two scenarios are 9.78 and 7.76 yuan/L, respectively. Based on the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, the article suggests the following: (1) stover-based E85 is currently not competitive in terms of cost; (2) on the current stage, to make E85 competitive, policymakers should be concerned about stimulating processing innovation, providing subsidies on ethanol, feedstock and co-product, as well as raising gasoline price, rather than increasing carbon tax rate/promoting Cleaner Development Mechanism (CDM) projects or influencing consumers' Willingness to Pay (WTP) for E85.
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