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GREAT POWER FOREIGN POLICY (2) answer(s).
 
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ID:   173637


Durability of Client Regimes: Foreign Sponsorship and Military Loyalty, 1946–2010 / Casey, Adam E   Journal Article
Casey, Adam E Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract Conventional wisdom holds that great power patrons prop up client dictatorships. But this is generally assumed rather than systematically analyzed. This article provides the first comprehensive analysis of the relationship between foreign sponsorship and authoritarian regime survival, using an original data set of all autocratic client regimes in the postwar period. The results demonstrate that patronage from Western powers—the United States, France, and the United Kingdom—is not associated with client regime survival. Rather, it’s only Soviet sponsorship that reduced the risk of regime collapse. The author explains this variation by considering the effects of foreign sponsorship on the likelihood of military coups d’état. He argues that the Soviet Union directly aided its clients by imposing a series of highly effective coup prevention strategies. By contrast, the US and its allies didn’t provide such aid, leaving regimes vulnerable to military overthrow.
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2
ID:   112791


Using the neo-classical realism paradigm to predict Russian for / Nygren, Bertil   Journal Article
Nygren, Bertil Journal Article
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Publication 2012.
Summary/Abstract This essay presents the argument that analysts, crystal ball readers and general future-tellers generally should to a much higher extent rely on claimed interests of great powers than on resources alone in predictions of future behaviour of great powers. Analysts should analyse what states want to do given what they could do, as much as analyse what states could do based on their resources, or analysts should analyse state policy intentions as much as state policy resources.
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