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ID: 112859

Commitment problems or bidding wars? rebel fragmentation as pea / Driscoll, Jesse

Driscoll, Jesse	Journal Article
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2012.

Summary/Abstract

After highly fragmented civil wars, order is often secured through the selective co-optation of rebel field commanders and atomized insurgents. This paper presents a formal model of civil war settlement as a coalition formation game between various regime and rebel factions. This approach emphasizes the ability of installed civilian rulers to lure warlords into the state based on promises of future wealth, then use divide-and-rule tactics to pit different warlord factions against one another. Quantitative and qualitative data from Tajikistan, including an original data set of warlord incorporation and regime purges during wartime reconstruction, are used to evaluate the model.

Key Words

Game Theory ; Central Asia ; State - Building ; Coalitions ; Civil War

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ID: 152817

With friends like these: brinkmanship and Chain-ganging in Russia's near abroad / Driscoll, Jesse ; Maliniak, Daniel

Driscoll, Jesse	Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract

Unrecognized statelets may be forming in the Eastern Donbas region of Ukraine under the aegis of Russian protection—a “frozen conflict.” Georgia's past provides a useful cautionary tale in reference to Ukraine's probable future. The very same conceptual debates that are currently underway in the West with respect to Ukraine—“credibility of great-power security guarantees versus chain-ganging”—have, over the past twenty years, generated policies that facilitated the rise of political coalitions within Georgia that prefer war with Russia to any other outcome.

Key Words

Russia ; Brinkmanship ; Chain-Ganging

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