|
|
|
Sort Order |
|
|
|
Items / Page
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| Srl | Item |
| 1 |
ID:
127247
|
|
|
|
|
| Publication |
2014.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
The modified Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS2) prescribes a volume of biofuels to be used in the United States transportation sector each year through 2022. As the dominant component of the transportation sector, we consider the feasibility of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) parc to provide enough demand for biofuels to satisfy RFS2. Sensitivity studies show that the fuel price differential between gasoline and ethanol blendstocks, such as E85, is the principal factor in LDV biofuel consumption. The numbers of flex fuel vehicles and biofuel refueling stations will grow given a favorable price differential. However, unless the feedstock price differential becomes extreme (biomass prices below $100 per dry ton and oil prices above $215 per barrel), which deviates from historical price trends, LDV parc biofuel consumption will fall short of the RFS2 mandate without an enforcement mechanism. Additionally, such commodity prices might increase biofuel consumption in the short-term, but discourage use of biofuels in the long-term as other technologies that do not rely on any gasoline blendstock may be preferable. Finally, the RFS2 program goals of reducing fossil fuel consumption and transportation greenhouse gas emissions could be achieved through other pathways, such as notable improvements in conventional vehicle efficiency.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 2 |
ID:
112927
|
|
|
|
|
| Publication |
2012.
|
| Summary/Abstract |
A parametric analysis is used to examine the supply demand interactions between the US light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet, its fuels, and the corresponding primary energy sources through 2050. The analysis emphasizes competition between conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, including hybrids, and electric vehicles (EVs), represented by both plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles. We find that EV market penetration could double relative to our baseline case with policies to extend consumers' effective payback period to 7 years. EVs can also reduce per vehicle petroleum consumption by up to 5% with opportunities to increase that fraction at higher adoption rates. However, EVs have limited ability to reduce LDV greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with the current energy source mix. Alone, EVs cannot drive compliance with the most aggressive GHG emission reduction targets, even if the electricity grid shifts towards natural gas powered sources. Since ICEs will dominate the LDV fleet for up to 40 years, conventional vehicle efficiency improvements have the greatest potential for reductions in LDV GHG emissions and petroleum consumption over this time. Specifically, achieving fleet average efficiencies of 72 mpg or greater can reduce average GHG emissions by 70% and average petroleum consumption by 81%.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|