| Summary/Abstract |
The concept of rising powers is central to international relations, and it is considered crucial for answering questions about war and peace. Yet the theoretical literature on rising powers is surprisingly sparse and highly contentious. One of the biggest shortcomings in this literature is that rising powers are conceptualized only in terms of their material capabilities, that is, their relative economic and military power. As a result, there is little agreement on who is a rising power, when they rose, and when they became or will become a great power. Drawing on primary and secondary sources, this article argues that rising powers are distinguished by very specific kinds of domestic beliefs. It uses two detailed cases, one historical (the United States 1898–1903) and one contemporary (China post-2002), to show that rising powers, despite different time periods, regimes, and cultures, have very particular kinds of beliefs about how to become a great power. It uses two additional mini cases, India post-2002 and Weimar Germany 1922–1933 to argue that if beliefs are not taken into account, states may be overestimated or underestimated as rising powers.
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