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| 1 |
ID:
118843
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
We investigate the impacts on the biophysical economy, employment and environment of a transition scenario to an energy-efficient, 100% renewable electricity (RE) system by 2060, based on wind, solar and biomass technologies, and an introduction of electric vehicles. We employ a CSIRO process-based model of the physical activity of Australia's economy and environmental resources, the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework. The RE systems are assumed to be manufactured in Australia to identify possible employment benefits. In comparison with the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, on a national scale, the RE scenario has much lower economy-wide net emissions, remaining below contemporary levels and becoming zero in the electricity sector by 2060. Compared with BAU, the RE scenario also has significantly lower industrial water use, somewhat higher materials use, slightly lower unemployment, lower net foreign debt (relative to a GDP proxy) and, resulting from the growth in electric vehicles, reduced oil imports. The GDP per capita growth, based on the physical stocks of capital and labour, is virtually the same in both scenarios. Hence, from the viewpoint of the biophysical economy, there are no major barriers to implementing policies to facilitate the transition to a 100% renewable electricity system for Australia.
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| 2 |
ID:
125415
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Least cost options are presented for supplying the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) with 100% renewable electricity using wind, photovoltaics, concentrating solar thermal (CST) with storage, hydroelectricity and biofuelled gas turbines. We use a genetic algorithm and an existing simulation tool to identify the lowest cost (investment and operating) scenarios of renewable technologies and locations for NEM regional hourly demand and observed weather in 2010 using projected technology costs for 2030. These scenarios maintain the NEM reliability standard, limit hydroelectricity generation to available rainfall, and limit bioenergy consumption. The lowest cost scenarios are dominated by wind power, with smaller contributions from photovoltaics and dispatchable generation: CST, hydro and gas turbines. The annual cost of a simplified transmission network to balance supply and demand across NEM regions is a small proportion of the annual cost of the generating system. Annual costs are compared with a scenario where fossil fuelled power stations in the NEM today are replaced with modern fossil substitutes at projected 2030 costs, and a carbon price is paid on all emissions. At moderate carbon prices, which appear required to address climate change, 100% renewable electricity would be cheaper on an annual basis than the replacement scenario.
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| 3 |
ID:
149892
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study aims to identify research priorities to enable low cost, high renewable power systems. An evolutionary program optimises the mix of technologies in 100% renewable energy portfolios (RE) in the Australian National Electricity Market. Various technologies are reduced in availability to determine their relative importance for achieving low costs. The single most important factor is found to be the integration of large quantities of wind; therefore wind integration is identified as a research priority. In contrast, photovoltaics are found to “saturate” the system at less than 10% of total energy (in the absence of storage or demand management, installation of further photovoltaics does not contribute significant further value). This indicates that policies to promote utility-scale photovoltaics should be considered in partnership with complementary measures (such as demand side participation and storage). Biofuelled gas turbines are found to be important; a complete absence of bioenergy increases costs by AU$20–30/MWh, and even having only 0.1 TWh per year of bioenergy available reduces average costs by AU$3–4/MWh. Limits on the non-synchronous penetration (NSP) are found to be relatively expensive, suggesting a significant research priority around finding alternative approaches to providing synchronous services, such as inertia. Geothermal and concentrating solar thermal technologies do not appear essential as long as sufficient wind and peaking bioenergy is available.
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| 4 |
ID:
113472
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
As a part of a program to explore technological options for the transition to a renewable energy future, we present simulations for 100% renewable energy systems to meet actual hourly electricity demand in the five states and one territory spanned by the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) in 2010. The system is based on commercially available technologies: concentrating solar thermal (CST) power with thermal storage, wind, photovoltaic (PV), existing hydro and biofuelled gas turbines. Hourly solar and wind generation data are derived from satellite observations, weather stations, and actual wind farm outputs. Together CST and PV contribute about half of total annual electrical energy supply.
A range of 100% renewable energy systems for the NEM are found to be technically feasible and meet the NEM reliability standard. The principal challenge is meeting peak demand on winter evenings following overcast days when CST storage is partially charged and sometimes wind speeds are low. The model handles these circumstances by combinations of an increased number of gas turbines and reductions in winter peak demand. There is no need for conventional base-load power plants. The important parameter is the reliability of the whole supply-demand system, not the reliability of particular types of power plants.
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