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| 1 |
ID:
113694
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Many published studies have considered information asymmetry between domestic and foreign investors about local assets in the stock market, particularly in developed markets. The present study proposes a new perspective to address the issue in the case of China's forward exchange rate market. Following the framework of Clarida and Taylor (1997), the term structures of exchange rates in the domestic forward and the non-deliverable forward markets are constructed and then applied to predict future spot exchange rates based on a vector equilibrium correction model. By comparing the forecast accuracy on the basis of the root mean square error and the mean absolute error, it is shown that dynamic out-of-sample forecasts of the domestic forward market are superior to those of the non-deliverable forward market, suggesting that domestic investors are better informed than foreign investors. The result has several important policy implications, especially for exchange rate determination.
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| 2 |
ID:
150743
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| Summary/Abstract |
Despite significant public attentions to green supply chain management, few studies have explicitly addressed the energy implications of consumer-goods supply surplus, especially in developing countries like China. This study explored the energy-saving potential from improving supply chain efficiencies and reducing excess inventory in China's retail system from a life-cycle perspective. Through embodied energy analysis, we found that energy invested pre-manufacture contributed 80–95% of the total energy embodied in consumer products. Although embodied energy intensities had declined by 60–90% since the mid-1990s, the lessened marginal improvements implied that "low hanging fruits" have largely been captured, and the search for new opportunities for energy-saving is in demand. Positive correlations between total economic inputs and embodied energy in consumer goods indicated possible synergy effect between cost-reduction and energy-saving in supply system management. And structural path analysis identified sector-specific energy management priorities for each retail-related sector. This study suggested that improving supply chain efficiencies provides a promising supplement to China's current industrial energy-efficient projects which target reducing direct energy use per se as an intra-firm cost-saving measure. From the life-cycle perspective, the definition of "green sector" might have to be reconsidered in China towards a more energy-efficient economy and society.
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| 3 |
ID:
186217
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| Summary/Abstract |
We estimate the effect of exports to China on local employment in South Korea, exploiting variations in trade and employment across 220 South Korean municipalities between 2007 and 2017. To identify the effect of exports on employment, we use a novel instrument: China's exports to the US. This isolates the demand-side factors for South Korean exports to China from the supply-side factors that lead to biased estimations using ordinary least squares regressions. The results of a two-stage least squares estimation using municipality-level data confirm that increased exports to China contribute to a rise in employment in South Korean local labor markets. This effect occurs mostly in the service and construction industries rather than in the manufacturing sector.
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| 4 |
ID:
186216
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| Summary/Abstract |
The existing literature on macroeconomic policy research is mainly concerned with the impact of a single monetary or fiscal policy on China's macroeconomic fluctuations in a closed economy. However, the effect of a mix of monetary and fiscal policies has been neglected. This paper addresses this issue with an open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. It applies impulse-response and welfare analyses to explore the stabilization effect of various mixes of monetary and fiscal policies. The results show that the optimal monetary policy and fiscal policy mix varies in different cases. When government spending shocks happen, the aggressive fiscal policy and passive monetary policy would be the best choice. In contrast, for domestic interest rate shocks, foreign interest rate shocks, and foreign consumption shocks, the passive fiscal policy and aggressive monetary policy are more applicable. This article explains China's economic fluctuations and highlights the importance of mix of monetary and fiscal policies in the face of different shocks.
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