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ID: 156604

Prospects for cross-strait political negotiation: exploring win-sets / Wenger, Josh ; Chen, Ming-tong

Chen, Ming-Tong	Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract

This study adopts a pre-negotiation approach based on Robert Putnam's win-set concept to examine domestic constraints on cross-Strait political negotiation. Survey research of elite opinion in both China and Taiwan and of public opinion in Taiwan is used to estimate each side's win-set (that is, the set of political negotiation outcomes that could win majority approval domestically) during Ma Ying-jeou's second presidential term in Taiwan (2012–2016). The possibility for overlap in win-sets that could provide a zone of possible agreement and the potential for coalitions in favour of negotiation are analysed. The study finds no win-set overlap and limited potential for coalitions favouring negotiation outcomes with the least distance from overlap, concluding that domestic conditions for formal political negotiations between Beijing and Taipei are unlikely to be ripe in the near term.

Key Words

Taiwan ; China ; Two-Level Game ; PRE-NEGOTIATION ; Political Negotiation ; Cross-Strait ;
Win-Setopinion Survey ; Zone of Possible Agreement

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ID: 113909

Taiwan in 2011: focus on crucial presidential election / Chen, Ming-Tong

Chen, Ming-Tong	Journal Article
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Publication	2012.
Summary/Abstract	Developments in Taiwan's politics, economy, society, and external relations in 2011 were closely tied to the presidential election contest. In the months leading up to the election, incumbent President Ma Ying-jeou held a slight lead in the polls over DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen. James Soong's late entry into the race had little impact on the outcome, and Ma Ying-jeou was reelected.

Key Words

Taiwan ; Presidential Election ; Democratic Progressive Party ; Kuomintang ; People's First Party

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ID: 119107

Taiwan in 2012: curse of the second-term president? / Chen, Ming-Tong

Chen, Ming-Tong	Journal Article
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Publication	2013.
Summary/Abstract	Beginning with an election triumph for incumbent President Ma Ying-jeou, 2012 proved a difficult year for both Taiwan and Ma; his second term got off to a dismal start. The island's economy experienced stagflation, while a series of controversies created a governance crisis during which the president's approval rating hit historic lows.

Key Words

Governance ; Presidency ; Cross - Strait ; Reelection ; Diaoyutai

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