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ID: 119786

Comparability analysis of global burden sharing GHG reduction s / Ciscar, Juan-Carlos; Saveyn, Bert; Soria, Antonio; Szabo, Laszlo

Szabo, Laszlo	Journal Article
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2013.

Summary/Abstract

The distribution of the mitigation burden across countries is a key issue regarding the post-2012 global climate policies. This article explores the economic implications of alternative allocation rules, an assessment made in the run-up to the COP15 in Copenhagen (December 2009). We analyse the comparability of the allocations across countries based on four single indicators: GDP per capita, GHG emissions per GDP, GHG emission trends in the recent past, and population growth. The multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model of the global economy, GEM-E3, is used for that purpose. Further, the article also compares a perfect carbon market without transaction costs with the case of a gradually developing carbon market, i.e. a carbon market with (gradually diminishing) transaction costs.

Key Words

Climate Policy ; Burden Sharing ; Computable General Equilibrium Models

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ID: 114301

Does climate policy make the EU economy more resilient to oil p / Maisonnave, Helene; Pycroft, Jonathan; Saveyn, Bert; Ciscar, Juan-Carlos

Maisonnave, Helene	Journal Article
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2012.

Summary/Abstract

The European Union has committed itself to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% in 2020 compared with 1990 levels. This paper investigates whether this policy has an additional benefit in terms of economic resilience by protecting the EU from the macroeconomic consequences due to an oil price rise. We use the GEM-E3 computable general equilibrium model to analyse the results of three scenarios. The first one refers to the impact of an increase in the oil price. The second scenario analyses the European climate policy and the third scenario analyses the oil price rise when the European climate policy is implemented. Unilateral EU climate policy implies a cost on the EU of around 1.0% of GDP. An oil price rise in the presence of EU climate policy does imply an additional cost on the EU of 1.5% of GDP (making a total loss of 2.5% of GDP), but this is less than the 2.2% of GDP that the EU would lose from the oil price rise in the absence of climate policy. This is evidence that even unilateral climate policy does offer some economic protection for the EU.

Key Words

Climate Policy ; Oil Prices ; Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)

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