| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Vehicle electrification has been seriously considered as an industry revolution to achieve sustainable transportation in China. Hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) and pure electric vehicles (EV) are being demonstrated in scores of large cities. We select three well-developed regions (Jing-Jin-Ji, Yangtze-River-Delta and Pearl-River-Delta) to explore regional growth patterns for the light-duty passenger vehicle fleet and develop various scenarios for the penetration of HEV, PHEV and EV during 2010-2030. Per-kilometre and fleet well-to-wheels (WTW) petroleum use, fossil energy and CO2 emissions are evaluated among various technology options. Promotion of PHEV and EV could help cut per-kilometre petroleum use to a great extent; however, to achieve a clear reduction benefit in oil demand for a fleet in three regions takes time. The effort to mitigate CO2 emissions is much more difficult than lowering fossil energy use or oil consumption. This is especially true for the Jing-Jin-Ji Region where coal is an overwhelming power source. In those regions with a high share of coal power, HEV is a better option than PHEV or EV to reduce WTW CO2 emissions. In the Pearl-River-Delta region with a much cleaner electricity mix, promotion of EV could achieve a more significant CO2 reduction.
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