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| 1 |
ID:
119780
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This research investigates if the stringent 2020 and 2050 overarching CO2 mitigation objectives set out by the European Union dominate its 2010 to 2020 targets specific to the transportation arena, specifically its biofuel penetration objectives and gram CO2per kilometre emission caps. Using a dynamic recursive general equilibrium model, IMACLIM-R, we demonstrate that these overarching targets do not dominate the interim transportation targets when the carbon policy triggering compliance with the mitigation objectives boils down to the theoretical least-cost option of uniform carbon pricing. Ground transportation is confirmed as quite insensitive to high carbon prices, even when such prices are applied over a long term. It is tempting to conclude that pursuing the mitigation objectives specific to transportation will impose unnecessary costs. However, because of the second best conditions prevailing in actual economies, and of the risk of lock-in in carbon intensive trajectories, we conclude with the urgent need for some ambitious transport-specific policy design research agenda.
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| 2 |
ID:
115174
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| Publication |
2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper disentangles the interactions between oil production profiles, the dynamics of oil prices and growth trends. We do so through a general equilibrium model in which Peak Oil endogenously emerges from the interplay between the geological, technical, macroeconomic and geopolitical determinants of supply and demand under non-perfect expectations. We analyze the macroeconomic effects of oil production profiles and demonstrate that Peak Oil dates that differ only slightly may lead to very different time profiles of oil prices, exportation flows and economic activity. We investigate Middle-East's trade-off between different pricing trajectories in function of two alternative objectives (maximisation of oil revenues or households' welfare) and assess its impact on OECD growth trajectories. A sensitivity analysis highlights the respective roles of the amount of resources, inertia on the deployment of non conventional oil and short-term oil price dynamics on Peak Oil dates and long-term oil prices. It also examines the effects of these assumptions on OECD growth and Middle-East strategic tradeoffs.
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