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ID: 125780

Long-term fuel demand: not only a matter of fuel price / Lampin, Laure B A; Nadaud, Franck; Grazi, Fabio; Hourcade, Jean-Charles

Hourcade, Jean-Charles	Journal Article
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2013.

Summary/Abstract

This paper analyzes the non-energy determinants of transport-related fuel consumption and in particular investigates the role of housing price trajectories in driving long-run demand for motor fuel. To this aim it develops a dynamic modeling framework and takes the next step of testing it for cointegration. French data spanning fifty years up to 2009 are employed. It is found that when facing an increase of dwellings' real price, fuel demand remains stable in the short term whereas it increases significantly in the long term. Our results reflect the role of spatial organization in the formation of energy demand through the trade-off between housing prices and commuting costs. The modeling framework is then extended to assess the potential interest of combining housing policies aiming to drive down housing prices with carbon taxes so as to achieve a wide range of fuel demand reduction targets. It is shown that the relative contribution of housing policies increases with the degree of ambition of fuel consumption reduction targets.

Key Words

energy Use ; Housing Price ; Spatial Policy

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ID: 115174

Peak Oil profiles through the lens of a general equilibrium ass / Waisman, Henri; Rozenberg, Julie; Sassi, Olivier; Hourcade, Jean-Charles

Waisman, Henri	Journal Article
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Publication

2012.

Summary/Abstract

This paper disentangles the interactions between oil production profiles, the dynamics of oil prices and growth trends. We do so through a general equilibrium model in which Peak Oil endogenously emerges from the interplay between the geological, technical, macroeconomic and geopolitical determinants of supply and demand under non-perfect expectations. We analyze the macroeconomic effects of oil production profiles and demonstrate that Peak Oil dates that differ only slightly may lead to very different time profiles of oil prices, exportation flows and economic activity. We investigate Middle-East's trade-off between different pricing trajectories in function of two alternative objectives (maximisation of oil revenues or households' welfare) and assess its impact on OECD growth trajectories. A sensitivity analysis highlights the respective roles of the amount of resources, inertia on the deployment of non conventional oil and short-term oil price dynamics on Peak Oil dates and long-term oil prices. It also examines the effects of these assumptions on OECD growth and Middle-East strategic tradeoffs.

Key Words

Oil Revenues ; General Equilibrium ; Peak Oil

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