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| 1 |
ID:
121286
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper illustrates the main results of an expert elicitation survey on advanced (second and third generation) biofuel technologies. The survey focuses on eliciting probabilistic information on the future costs of advanced biofuels and on the potential role of Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) efforts in reducing these costs and in supporting the deployment of biofuels in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and non-OECD countries. Fifteen leading experts from different EU member states provide insights on the future potential of advanced biofuel technologies both in terms of costs and diffusion. This information results in a number of policy recommendations with respect to public RD&D strategies and is an important contribution to the integrated assessment modelling community.
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| 2 |
ID:
181781
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| Summary/Abstract |
An estimated 28 countries are interested in introducing nuclear power into their electric grid mix. The sudden influx of new nuclear power plants into emerging nuclear energy countries can present further nuclear proliferation and security risks. These risks can be even more prevalent for nations with political instability and limited resources to adequately support a robust nuclear regulatory infrastructure. This paper estimates the nuclear proliferation and security risks associated with the deployment of Generation III + nuclear power plants and Small Modular Reactors to emerging nuclear energy countries using expert judgment in conjunction with Bayesian Belief Networks. On average, Turkey is the most likely to divert nuclear material to develop a nuclear weapon (46% with an rsd of 0.50), divert civilian nuclear knowledge and technology for military use (38% with an rsd of 0.61), and to have their nuclear material stolen by non-state actors (39% with an rsd of 0.65). This is followed by Saudi Arabia at 38% (0.66 rsd), 39% (0.64 rsd), 32% (0.83 rsd), respectively. Reactor type has minimal impact on risk, while nations that pursue domestic enrichment and reprocessing has the greatest impact. In scenarios where emerging nuclear energy countries pursue domestic enrichment and reprocessing, the nuclear proliferation and security risks increase between 16% and 18%, on average. Lower-risk countries that engage in domestic enrichment and reprocessing can have comparable nuclear proliferation and security risks as Turkey and Saudi Arabia.
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| 3 |
ID:
125583
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| Publication |
2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Critical energy policy decisions rely on expert assessments of key future uncertainties. But existing modelling techniques that help form these expert assessments often ignore the existence of uncertainty. Consequently, techniques to measure these uncertainties are of increasing importance. We use one technique, expert elicitation, to assess six key uncertain parameters with 25 UK energy experts across academia, government and industry. We obtain qualitative descriptions of the uncertain parameters and a novel data set of probability distributions describing individual expert beliefs. We conduct a sensitivity analysis on weights for a linear opinion pool and show that aggregated median beliefs in 2030 are: for oil price $120/barrel (90% CI: 51, 272); for greenhouse gas price $34/tCO2e (90% CI: 5, 256) and for levelised cost of low-carbon electricity 17.1 US cents/kWh (90% CI: 8.3, 31.0). The quantitative results could inform model validation, help benchmark policy makers' beliefs or provide probabilistic inputs to models.
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| 4 |
ID:
183038
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| Summary/Abstract |
While fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) fueled by hydrogen produced using low-carbon processes could considerably reduce carbon emissions from transportation, FCEVs are produced at low volume, are expensive to manufacture, and lack widespread refueling infrastructure. To inform advancement pathways for FCEVs, we conducted an expert elicitation on vehicle costs and performance at anticipated production volumes, governmental actions to advance FCEVs, anticipated sales of FCEVs equipped with an automated driving system (ADS), and anticipated infrastructure deployments. Between 2020 and 2035, experts assessed a three-fold decline in fuel cell system costs to $60/kW and over an order of magnitude increase in production volume to 225,000 systems/year. Levelized costs of driving were assesed at $0.25–$0.90/mile and $0.17–$0.65/mile in 2035 and 2050, respectively. FCEVs could constitute a considerable share of ADS-equipped vehicle sales depending on cost and performance trajectories of automated driving technology and electric vehicles. Experts identified regulatory and incentive-based policies as important governmental actions to advance FCEVs and recommended hydrogen, fuel cells, and technology deployment activities each receive at least 20% of government research and development funding. Medians of experts' U.S. refueling station deployment assessments were 500 and 2,000 stations cumulative in 2030 and 2040, respectively. The middle 50% of respondents anticipated 2030 cumulative FCEV deployments in China of 100,000–1 million.
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| 5 |
ID:
115657
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In this paper we present and discuss the results of an expert elicitation survey on solar technologies. Sixteen leading European experts from the academic world, the private sector and international institutions took part in this expert elicitation survey on Photovoltaic (PV) and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) technologies. The survey collected probabilistic information on (1) how Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) investments will impact the future costs of solar technologies and (2) the potential for solar technology deployment both in OECD and non-OECD countries. Understanding the technological progress and the potential of solar PV and CPS technologies is crucial to draft appropriate energy policies. The results presented in this paper are thus relevant for the policy making process and can be used as better input data in integrated assessment and energy models.
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| 6 |
ID:
125527
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2013.
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The paper describes the results of a survey carried out with leading EU experts on the future costs of batteries for electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles and the uncertainty surrounding them. Battery costs are one of the main components in the overall costs of EVs and improvements could be brought about by increased investments in research, development and demonstration (RD&D). Experts' judgements are collected to shed light on the inherently uncertain relationship between RD&D efforts and the consequent technical progress in batteries. The analysis of the experts' data results in a number of important policy recommendations to guide future RD&D choices and target commitments both for the EU and its member states.
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| 7 |
ID:
192757
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| Summary/Abstract |
Offshore wind power is an important technology option for decarbonising the electricity sector. An emerging region for the deployment of offshore wind is the Asia-Pacific. We conduct an expert elicitation of future cost expectations for offshore wind in the Asia-Pacific region, covering fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind technologies. We also examine views on policies that support the more rapid cost reductions for fixed bottom and floating offshore wind. We find expectations of decreases in the average levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) to USD72/MWh in 2040 (fixed-bottom) and USD81/MWh in 2050 (floating). The largest factors contributing to falling technology costs are identified as installation costs and capital costs for turbines and foundations, along with increased capacity factors. The creation of policy targets along with improved regulatory streamlining are identified as important policy measures that governments could implement to support technology cost reductions. We also find that preferred policy mixes depend on the level of technological maturity. Competitive tendering processes are identified as important for both technologies, but floating offshore wind auctions should be introduced after technology costs have fallen. In the near term, other policies are identified as more important for floating offshore technologies.
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| 8 |
ID:
127199
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2014.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This paper focuses on technologies which use thermo-chemical or biochemical processes to convert biomass into electricity. We present the results from an expert elicitation exercise involving sixteen leading experts coming from different EU Member States. Aim of the elicitation was to assess the potential cost reduction of RD&D (research, development and demonstration) efforts and to identify barriers to the diffusion of these technologies. The research sheds light on the future potential of bioenergy technologies both in OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) and non-OECD countries. The results we present are an important input both for the integrated assessment modeling community and for policy makers who draft public RD&D strategies.
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