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ID: 167954

Forecasting models and the presidential vote / Wink, Kenneth A

WINK, KENNETH A	Journal Article
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Summary/Abstract

KENNETH A. WINK compares and contrasts a number of U.S. presidential election forecasting models and finds that some perform better than others. He argues that some systematic factors have an impact in every election regardless of the characteristics of the candidates, the effectiveness of the campaigns, and the events that occur in a particular election year

Key Words

Presidential Vote ; U.S. Presidential Election

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ID: 149328

Forecasting the presidential vote with leading economic indicators and the polls / Erikson, Robert S; Wlezien, Christopher

Erikson, Robert S	Journal Article
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Forecasting ; Polls ; Presidential Vote ; Leading Economic Indicators

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ID: 116454

History and primary: the Obama reelection / Norpoth, Helmut; Bednarczuk, Michael

Norpoth, Helmut	Journal Article
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2012.

Summary/Abstract

Democrat Barack Obama is going to defeat Republican Mitt Romney by a comfortable margin in the 2012 presidential election. This forecast comes from a statistical model that uses the primary performance of the candidates and a cycle in presidential elections to predict the presidential vote. In plain English, Obama has history on his side as well as the fact that he was unchallenged in the primaries. The model, called The Primary Model because of its heavy reliance on primaries, covers elections from 1912, the beginning of presidential primaries. Since 1952, however, only the New Hampshire Primary is used; we justify the choice of New Hampshire at some length.

Key Words

Barack Obama ; New Hampshire ; Presidential Election - 2012 ; Democrat Barack Obama ; Presidential Vote

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