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| 1 |
ID:
117306
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
Although China became the world's largest CO2 emitter in 2007, the country has also taken serious actions to reduce its energy and carbon intensity. This study uses the bottom-up LBNL China End-Use Energy Model to assess the role of energy efficiency policies in transitioning China to a lower emission trajectory and meeting its 2020 intensity reduction goals. Two scenarios - Continued Improvement and Accelerated Improvement - were developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and potential actions, and to evaluate the potential for China to reduce energy demand and emissions. This scenario analysis presents an important modeling approach based in the diffusion of end-use technologies and physical drivers of energy demand and thereby help illuminate China's complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and implications of energy efficiency policies. The findings suggest that China's CO2 emissions will not likely continue growing throughout this century because of saturation effects in appliances, residential and commercial floor area, roadways, fertilizer use; and population peak around 2030 with slowing urban population growth. The scenarios also underscore the significant role that policy-driven efficiency improvements will play in meeting 2020 carbon mitigation goals along with a decarbonized power supply.
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| 2 |
ID:
116740
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2012.
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| Summary/Abstract |
This study analyzes China's industrial energy consumption trends from 1996 to 2010 with a focus on the impact of the Top-1000 Enterprises Energy-Saving Program and the Ten Key Energy-Saving Projects. From 1996 to 2010, China's industrial energy consumption increased by 134%, even as the industrial economic energy intensity decreased by 46%. Decomposition analysis shows that the production effect was the dominant cause of the rapid growth in industrial energy consumption, while the efficiency effect was the major factor slowing the growth of industrial energy consumption. The structural effect had a relatively small and fluctuating influence. Analysis shows the strong association of industrial energy consumption with the growth of China's economy and changing energy policies. An assessment of the Top-1000 Enterprises Energy-Saving Program and the Ten Key Energy-Saving Projects indicates that the economic energy intensity of major energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors, as well as the physical energy intensity of major energy-intensive industrial products, decreased significantly during China's 11th Five Year Plan (FYP) period (2006-2010). This study also shows the importance and challenge of realizing structural change toward less energy-intensive activities in China during the 12th FYP period (2011-2015).
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| 3 |
ID:
121353
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2013.
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| Summary/Abstract |
In 2010, China's cement output was 1.9 Gt, which accounted for 56% of world cement production. Total carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from Chinese cement production could therefore exceed 1.2 Gt. The magnitude of emissions from this single industrial sector in one country underscores the need to understand the uncertainty of current estimates of cement emissions in China. This paper compares several methodologies for calculating CO2 emissions from cement production, including the three main components of emissions: direct emissions from the calcination process for clinker production, direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and indirect emissions from electricity consumption. This paper examines in detail the differences between common methodologies for each emission component, and considers their effect on total emissions. We then evaluate the overall level of uncertainty implied by the differences among methodologies according to recommendations of the Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology. We find a relative uncertainty in China's cement-related emissions in the range of 10 to 18%. This result highlights the importance of understanding and refining methods of estimating emissions in this important industrial sector.
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